Is 1321 Ravenna Pl in Brookshire, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-737/mo modeled cash flow at a $293,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1321 Ravenna Pl?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,435/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.67

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$293,900

1321 Ravenna Pl · Brookshire, TX 77423

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot 2-car garage $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

Key facts

Main-floor layout
Airy great room
Walk-in shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-737 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (8.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (17.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $243k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,489 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 3.93%
Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
DSCR: 0.62
GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $374,704
List price: $293,900
Delta: -21.56%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 Ravenna Pl	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	2mo	$269,900	$135	76
1237 Catalina Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	1mo	$269,900	$135	76
1205 Catalina Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	2mo	$276,900	$138	76
32610 Mallard St	0.76mi	4/3.0	2,390 (+6%)	0mo	$475,000	$199	53
32803 Teal St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (-13%)	23mo	$425,000	$216	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.6%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-114,709
Equity at exit: $55,870

10-year hold

IRR: -68.3%
Equity multiple: -0.79×
Total profit: $-187,574
Equity at exit: $32,398

Cash invested: $104,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 26 active · 13 under contract
Months of supply: 22.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $286,445 ($140/sqft)
Median days on market: 115 d
This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +18.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1235
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,435 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,965
Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,621/yr
Insurance: −$156
HOA: −$71
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
Net cashflow: $-737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,368

Max offer price $268,069

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-478	-5% $-607	+0% $-737	+5% $-866	+10% $-996
Rent	-10% $-929	-5% $-833	+0% $-737	+5% $-641	+10% $-545
Rate	-1.0pp $-548	-0.5pp $-642	base $-737	+0.5pp $-834	+1.0pp $-933

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $93,676
Closing costs: $11,241
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Annual association fee of $850Has association

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Built in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick constructionCentury Communities builder
Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveQuartz countertopsKitchen island
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16'5" x 13'0")Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 11'3" x 10'7", 10'3" x 12'3", 10'2" x 12'3")
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bathroomQuartz countersTub with showerCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $293,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $293,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $293,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $293,900 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $293,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $293,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $293,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $293,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $293,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $293,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $293,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $293,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $293,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $293,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $293,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $293,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $293,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $293,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $293,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $293,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $293,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $293,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $293,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $293,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $293,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $293,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $293,900 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $293,900 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $293,900 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $293,900 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $293,900 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $293,900 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $293,900 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $293,900 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $293,900 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $293,900 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $293,900 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $293,900 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $293,900 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $293,900 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $293,900 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $293,900 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $293,900 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $293,900 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $293,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $293,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $293,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $293,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $293,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $293,900 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,219
− Mortgage interest: −$20,989
− Property taxes: −$5,621
− Insurance: −$1,874
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
− Management: −$2,337
− HOA: −$852
− Depreciation: −$10,900
Taxable loss: −$15,692

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,766
After-tax cash flow: $-5,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping the front yard, upgrading kitchen appliances, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

Score: 62/100
State rank: #960
US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-05 Listed $293,900 HARMLS
2026-04-29 Listed $293,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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