19742 Live Oak N · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$215,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1966 0.28 ac lot $151/sqft · 7% below area Est $232k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a tranquil country setting, this spacious home offers an RV pad site and two fenced lots for a mobile home. With a well and septic system in place, this 3/1.5/1 property is conveniently located near highways 99 and 59 for easy commuting. Embrace the opportunity to customize this charming abode to your liking, as it boasts endless potential and no HOA restrictions. Create your dream retreat in this picturesque setting.

Key facts

• Rv pad site
• No hoa restrictions
• Two fenced lots

Tags

• RV PAD SITE
• TWO FENCED LOTS
• WELL AND SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-358/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,826 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,248
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -7.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26330 Hunters Trl	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,398 (-2%)	12mo	$215,000	$154	69
19947 Timber Line Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-4%)	12mo	$275,000	$201	65
26763 Royal Coach Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+11%)	3mo	$300,000	$189	63
27015 Coach Light Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+1%)	9mo	$219,900	$153	62
26990 Royal Coach Ln	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,363 (-4%)	9mo	$150,000	$110	59
19786 Pin Oak N	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+13%)	21mo	$220,000	$137	56
20159 Roadway	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	12mo	$244,900	$163	54
26091 Peach Creek Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-9%)	14mo	$219,900	$170	53
26658 Spanish Oaks Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-15%)	15mo	$90,000	$74	51
19626 Indian Trl	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,632 (+14%)	23mo	$245,000	$150	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,557
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-57,330
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $209,726

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $31	+0% $-30	+5% $-91	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-99	+0% $-30	+5% $40	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $25	base $-30	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Artesian Way Roman Forest, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$1,495	$0.95	44d	1	1.20mi
630 Magnolia Bnd Roman Forest, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,545	$1.07	25d	1	1.38mi
634 Magnolia Bnd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,485	$1.02	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $215,000 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Nestled in a tranquil country setting, this spacious home offers an RV pad site and two fenced lots for a mobile home. With a well and septic system in place, this 3/1.5/1 property is conveniently located near highways 99 and 59 for easy commuting. Embrace the opportunity to customize this charming abode to your liking, as it boasts endless potential and no HOA restrictions. Create your dream retreat in this picturesque setting.

15. 2026-02-10
    listed $225,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Nestled in a tranquil country setting, this spacious home offers an RV pad site and two fenced lots for a mobile home. With a well and septic system in place, this 3/1.5/1 property is conveniently located near highways 99 and 59 for easy commuting. Embrace the opportunity to customize this charming abode to your liking, as it boasts endless potential and no HOA restrictions. Create your dream retreat in this picturesque setting.

16. 2024-09-27
    historical
17. 2024-07-01
    price $214,000
18. 2024-05-13
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus
20. 2014-07-15
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2014-07-04
    historical
22. 2014-04-23
    status Pending
23. 2014-02-07
    status Pending
24. 2014-02-07
    price $85,000
25. 2014-01-04
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,513/yr (+$126/mo · 62.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+115.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $214,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-13 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2014-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-07-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-07 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2014-01-04 Listed $99,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,422 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.