616 Broadoak Dr · Dundee, FL 33838

$275,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 6,000 sqft lot $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Quick Move In Home - Starting Soon. Fall in love with The Oak floor plan in Woodland Ranch, a vibrant community designed for comfort, convenience, and recreation. Residents enjoy a resort style swimming pool w/ cabana, a play lawn for recreation, sidewalks, and a pet friendly environment. East Central Park is just 1.8 miles away, with quick access to US 27 only five minutes from the community, making this an ideal location to enjoy everything Dundee has in store. The Oak greets you with a formal entryway that sets a welcoming and elegant tone. Its thoughtfully designed split floor plan creates a sense of openness and functionality, while the open concept great room flows

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Ensuite bath
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• RESORT STYLE SWIMMING POOL
• EXTENDED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,950; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by C/O Maronda Homes; required fees $780 annually ($65/month); Community amenities: park, pool, sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 20) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction (projected completion August 30, 2026); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Other roof material; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: Maronda Homes, LLC of Florida (model: Oak)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; Landscaped lot; Level lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Insulated windows; Great Room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dundee Elementary Academy (math 51% / reading 56%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 653 students, 47% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,533 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $126,167
• Equity at exit: $248,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $390,723
• Equity at exit: $536,188

Cash invested: $77,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,140/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,497

Max offer price $220,975

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-285	+0% $-380	+5% $-476	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-539	-5% $-460	+0% $-380	+5% $-301	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-241	-0.5pp $-310	base $-380	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,998
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Coyer Rd Unit 2 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,000	$1.98	25d	1	0.44mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	5d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,990 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,990 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,990 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,990 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,990 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,990 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,990 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,990 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,990 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $275,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$4,140
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$9,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $275,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid