1047 Victoria Ln · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77617

$294,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,097 sqft · Land · 748 Days on market

4,430 sqft lot $269/sqft · 32% below area Est $432k · 32% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL NEW CONSTRUCTION STEPS FROM THE GULF. This is the base price for the 2 bed/2 bath floor plan in the Villas at Pelican Pass community located 200 yds from the Gulf with amazing Bay views. We offer options to including a loft, quartz counters, garage, outdoor shower & rv hookups. Villas come with appliances, hardwood flooring throughout & designer touches. MODELS are across from Rancho Carribe 9 hole golf course & Margaritaville on Hwy 87, 1021 Sunset Circle W, Crystal Beach.

Key facts

• 4,430 sq ft lot
• Listed 748 days

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION VILLAS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERS
• OCEAN OBSERVATORY DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 748 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,784 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 748 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,759
• List price: $294,999
• Delta: -31.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $11,974
• Equity at exit: $132,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $76,557
• Equity at exit: $204,421

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77617

• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,137

Max offer price $228,784

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
998 Dolly St Unit 1223259P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$2,663	$2.03	5d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,999 Active 748 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,999 Active 747 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,999 Active 746 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,999 Active 745 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,999 Active 743 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $294,999 Active 742 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,999 Active 739 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,999 Active 738 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,999 Active 737 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,999 Active 736 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,999 Active 733 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,999 Active 732 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,999 Active 731 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,999 Active 730 DOM
15. 2024-05-31
    listed $294,999 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL NEW CONSTRUCTION STEPS FROM THE GULF. This is the base price for the 2 bed/2 bath floor plan in the Villas at Pelican Pass community located 200 yds from the Gulf with amazing Bay views. We offer options to including a loft, quartz counters, garage, outdoor shower & rv hookups. Villas come with appliances, hardwood flooring throughout & designer touches. MODELS are across from Rancho Carribe 9 hole golf course & Margaritaville on Hwy 87, 1021 Sunset Circle W, Crystal Beach.

16. 2023-10-06
    status Pending
17. 2023-10-06
    historical
18. 2023-06-02
    listed $57,863 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,574/yr (+$381/mo · 555.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$9,503
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$9,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,266
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 38

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Serbian 18%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+409.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-31 Listed $294,999 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Listed $57,863 HARMLS

Property tax history

+44.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $824 · +146.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.