16 Mystery Path · Twin Forks, NM 88317

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1990 0.32 ac lot $219/sqft · 32% below area Est $465k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Log cabin mountain home with great views from the back covered deck nestled in the Aspen and pine trees. The main floor includes a large living area with high ceiling and massive log beams, dining, and kitchen space. The master suite and bath are also on the main level. Upstairs is two bedrooms and shared bath. This property boasts of a large cover back deck with plenty of room for entertaining, shed for storage and two car attached carport. This cabin is perfect for full time or a part time retreat to escape the heat. Make a fair offer and own it.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Large living area
• Massive log beams

Tags

• LOG CABIN
• MOUNTAIN HOME
• GREAT VIEWS
• COVERED DECK
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• MASSIVE LOG BEAMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#74 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,096 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,541
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -32.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-64,804
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-74,620
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88317

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $796/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $277,306

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $315,000 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-03-18
   listed $315,000 Active 564-char remark

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Beautiful Log cabin mountain home with great views from the back covered deck nestled in the Aspen and pine trees. The main floor includes a large living area with high ceiling and massive log beams, dining, and kitchen space. The master suite and bath are also on the main level. Upstairs is two bedrooms and shared bath. This property boasts of a large cover back deck with plenty of room for entertaining, shed for storage and two car attached carport. This cabin is perfect for full time or a part time retreat to escape the heat. Make a fair offer and own it.

9. 2013-07-24
   soldstatus 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Beautifully maintained log home in the pines with views. The main floor includes a large open living/dining space and the master bedroom and bath. Two very cozy and welcoming bedrooms with shared bath are on the upper floor. Very large covered front deck where you can have your coffee or entertain in the forest. 2 car carport to protect you from the elements. Extra large storage shed. The home is perfect as a full time residence or a part time "retreat from the heat" getaway!

10. 2013-07-19
    soldstatus
11. 2013-05-21
    listed $149,000 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Beautifully maintained log home in the pines with views. The main floor includes a large open living/dining space and the master bedroom and bath. Two very cozy and welcoming bedrooms with shared bath are on the upper floor. Very large covered front deck where you can have your coffee or entertain in the forest. 2 car carport to protect you from the elements. Extra large storage shed. The home is perfect as a full time residence or a part time "retreat from the heat" getaway!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,724/yr (+$144/mo · 216.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥82°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$796
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Twin Forks

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #15169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twin Forks, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,633

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 21% Iranian 18% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 209.5308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+111.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $315,000 OCAOR
• 2013-07-24 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2013-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-21 Listed $149,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $796 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.