953 Forest Oaks Dr · Somerset, TX 78069

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 2001 1.93 ac lot $147/sqft · 38% below area Est $320k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on 1.94 acres, this corner lot property offers a peaceful setting with mature trees and plenty of space to enjoy country living, all while being less than 15 minutes from the 1604 Loop. The single-wide home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,350 sq ft of living space, along with central AC and a functional layout designed for everyday comfort. A septic system installed in 2018 and two storage sheds provide added functionality for tools, equipment, or hobbies. The land offers open space and natural surroundings ideal for outdoor living, expansion, or future improvements. An additional older single-wide currently on the property will be removed prior to closing, leaving

Key facts

• Two storage sheds
• Corner lot
• Outdoor living

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; For sale
• HOA & community: Located in Forest Oaks subdivision (Forest Oaks S/D Unit 2)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Water system (private); Septic
• Home design: Pre-owned siding exterior; North-facing
• Construction: Approximately 25 years old; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage building / shed; Wire fence; Partially wooded yard with mature trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with full bath (13 x 14); Bedroom 2 (7 x 8); Bedroom 3 (10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower and single vanity (8 x 14)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater; Eat-in kitchen; 1 living area; Utility room inside; Ground level / no steps
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry area in kitchen; Utility room (2 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,920 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,607
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -37.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $68,561
• Equity at exit: $132,526

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $196,733
• Equity at exit: $247,015

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78069

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,711/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $122	+0% $65	+5% $9	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $-1	+0% $65	+5% $132	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $116	base $65	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    listed $199,000 New 747-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,711 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,931/yr (+$161/mo · 112.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,711
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$628
• After-tax cash flow: $1,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Somerset

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #12187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,904

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 17% White 15% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 260.4467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $199,000 LERA

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,711 · +29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.