27 Dogwood Dr · Silver Creek, MS 39663

$119,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,073 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1971 4.13 ac lot $58/sqft · 18% above area Est $101k · 18% over ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This country residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, nestled on a 4.13 acre lot. The residence requires updating, renovation, and cosmetic improvements, presenting an opportunity for buyers to create a personalized retreat. Home has attached 2 car garage and large front and backyard that would be great for entertaining guests. Home includes central air and heat. This home could also make a great addition to your investment portfolio. Motivated seller must relocate bring cash offers!

Key facts

• 4.13 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($701/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#293 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,370
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 18.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $13,254
• Equity at exit: $48,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $48,399
• Equity at exit: $71,118

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39663

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,190/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $119,900 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This country residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, nestled on a 4.13 acre lot. The residence requires updating, renovation, and cosmetic improvements, presenting an opportunity for buyers to create a personalized retreat. Home has attached 2 car garage and large front and backyard that would be great for entertaining guests. Home includes central air and heat. This home could also make a great addition to your investment portfolio. Motivated seller must relocate bring cash offers!

2. 2026-04-02
   listed $129,000 Active 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This country residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, nestled on a 4.13 acre lot. The residence requires updating, renovation, and cosmetic improvements, presenting an opportunity for buyers to create a personalized retreat. Home has attached 2 car garage and large front and backyard that would be great for entertaining guests. Home includes central air and heat. This home could also make a great addition to your investment portfolio. Motivated seller must relocate bring cash offers!

3. 2026-02-27
   status Active
4. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-13
   historical
6. 2025-11-05
   listed $129,000 Active
7. 2025-10-07
   price $125,000
8. 2025-08-16
   price $139,900
9. 2025-07-05
   historical
10. 2025-03-26
    listed $147,000 Active
11. 2025-01-30
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2025-01-16
    status Pending
13. 2025-01-09
    price $139,900
14. 2024-11-27
    price $149,900
15. 2024-08-19
    listed $159,900 Active
16. 2024-05-23
    price $169,900
17. 2024-03-05
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,190 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,190 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,190
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,725
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8812
• State rank: #85 of 130 in MS

Livability — Silver Creek

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #22085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,405

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,069 people
• By 2030: 11,724 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 10,955 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 10,085 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 5,614 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 49%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.6) · D 31.4% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -36.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.6 2020: R+30.6 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Current HPI: 110.0865
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-35.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $119,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-02 Listed $129,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-01-13 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-11-05 Listed $129,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $125,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $139,900 MLSU
• 2025-07-05 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-03-26 Listed $147,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-30 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2025-01-16 Pending — HAAR
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $139,900 HAAR
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $149,900 HAAR
• 2024-08-19 Listed $159,900 HAAR
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $169,900 HAAR
• 2024-03-05 Listed $185,000 HAAR

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,190 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.