12513 123rd Avenue Ct E #112 · South Hill, WA 98374

$158,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1982 $123/sqft · 36% above area Est $117k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully preserved 3-bed, 2-bath Silvercrest home in the coveted Country Dale 55+ community offers 1,296 sq. ft. of comfortable living. The bright, open-concept layout features a functional kitchen and spacious living area, perfect for entertaining. The standout feature is the rare, 624 sq. ft. oversized detached garage-ideal for a workshop, secure parking, or extra storage. Privacy and quiet abound, as the home is tucked in at the end of a quiet road, and backing up to a tree-lined green space. Outside, enjoy a manicured, private yard with mature landscaping and a relaxing porch. Low-maintenance and move-in ready, this home is a rare find for those who want quality living with extr

Key facts

• Private yard
• Relaxing porch
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE YARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• RELAXING PORCH
• TREE LINED GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,413 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.97%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,919
• List price: $158,950
• Delta: 35.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12504 123rd St E #54	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	7mo	$103,000	$72	63
4116 20th Pl SE	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-4%)	0mo	$406,000	$328	62
11415 127th St E #186	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,339 (+3%)	3mo	$80,000	$60	60
11429 124th Street Ct E #121	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (-4%)	8mo	$115,000	$92	54
12602 112th Ave E #33	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+3%)	9mo	$66,500	$50	53
11401 125th Street Ct E #218	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+8%)	8mo	$139,950	$100	52
11301 126th St E #241	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (+10%)	1mo	$60,000	$42	46
12614 113th Ave E #247	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,182 (-9%)	9mo	$75,000	$63	41
12615 113th St E #249	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+13%)	8mo	$116,950	$80	40
11325 126th St E #229	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+12%)	5mo	$139,900	$96	40
11216 127th St E #19	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,147 (-12%)	5mo	$67,500	$59	40
11328 126th St E #228	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-14%)	8mo	$40,000	$36	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $30,005
• Equity at exit: $23,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $89,210
• Equity at exit: $13,743

Cash invested: $44,506 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98374

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,344/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $158,950

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,016	-5% $971	+0% $926	+5% $881	+10% $836
Rent	-10% $724	-5% $825	+0% $926	+5% $1,027	+10% $1,128
Rate	-1.0pp $1,006	-0.5pp $966	base $926	+0.5pp $885	+1.0pp $843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,738
• Closing costs: $4,768
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12317 121st Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,400	$2.32	18d	1	0.15mi
12317 121st Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,400	$2.32	0d	1	0.15mi
12117 122nd Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1549	$2,975	$1.92	0d	1	0.21mi
12123 125th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	45d	1	0.24mi
12437 129th Ave E Puyallup, WA	2.0	1.5	1818	$2,400	$1.32	11d	1	0.30mi
13007 Sunridge Way E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	0d	1	0.64mi
12006 108th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	4d	1	1.02mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$2,850	$2.28	4d	1	1.05mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$3,000	$2.40	45d	1	1.05mi
10614 123rd Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1584	$2,500	$1.58	45d	1	1.09mi
502 43rd Ave SE Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,810	$2.55	4d	1	1.19mi
12724 104th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$2,345	$2.58	6d	8	1.22mi
13404 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	25d	1	1.22mi
12111 104th Ave E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,867	$2.07	6d	1	1.25mi
13523 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	25d	1	1.30mi
13011 Meridian E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,350	$2.49	3d	19	1.32mi
11013 144th Street Ct E Unit O24-6-B Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,450	$1.75	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $158,950 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,950 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,950 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,950 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,950 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,950 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,950 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,950 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,950 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,950 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $158,950 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,950 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,950 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,950 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,950 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $158,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,904
• − Property taxes: −$2,344
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$4,624
• Taxable income: $9,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,189
• After-tax cash flow: $8,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,007
• Household income: $112,662
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1171.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -431.48%
• Current HPI: 286.6617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $158,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,344 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.