811 S Hickory St · Mauston, WI 53948

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1956 8,712 sqft lot Est $180k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Delayed listing, more to follow soon

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($408/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.4% in Mauston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#258 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mauston School District (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #248 of 342 in WI (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Side Elementary (267 students, 68% FRL); Olson Middle (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #185 of 383 statewide, top 49%, 233 students, 57% FRL); Mauston High (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #400 of 483 statewide, top 85%, 381 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 154 units permitted in Juneau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,947 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 W Milwaukee St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-4%)	8mo	$200,000	$194	74
435 S Union St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	976 (-9%)	1mo	$85,000	$87	69
509 Loomis Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-0%)	12mo	$100,000	$94	58
511 Pine St	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$208	57
108 Hanover St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+3%)	8mo	$188,500	$171	52
805 Prairie St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,180 (+10%)	11mo	$235,000	$199	52
650 Roosevelt St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,070 (0%)	12mo	$153,400	$143	48
603 Mansion St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+12%)	12mo	$239,900	$200	41
139 Beach St	0.75mi	3/1.0	954 (-11%)	8mo	$47,352	$50	41
620 E State St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+12%)	9mo	$199,900	$167	39
443 West Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,215 (+14%)	14mo	$189,400	$156	38
611 Grove St	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,192 (+11%)	12mo	$200,000	$168	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,257
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,422
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53948

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,199/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $75	+0% $34	+5% $-7	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-22	+0% $34	+5% $90	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $71	base $34	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Stonefield Cir Unit 502 Mauston, WI	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,435	$1.15	23d	1	0.43mi
400 Stonefield Cir Unit 301 Mauston, WI	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,535	$1.11	23d	1	0.43mi
400 Stonefield Cir Unit 931 Mauston, WI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,335	$1.24	16d	1	0.43mi
510 McEvoy St Mauston, WI	2.0	1.0	825	$1,200	$1.45	15d	1	0.68mi
414 Lincoln St Mauston, WI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	15d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,199 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,199 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,199
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mauston School District
• NCES district ID: 5508850
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,779
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6658
• State rank: #248 of 342 in WI

Livability — Mauston

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mauston, WI
• Population (ZIP): 8,221

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,013 people
• By 2030: 24,154 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 22,217 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 20,276 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 15,919 · -36.4%
• By 2100: 11,351 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 8% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.4% · R 65.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.0pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: D+7.1 2008: D+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.90%
• Current HPI: 263.4253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — SCWMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $145,000 SCWMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,199 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.