630 Linden Dr #1117 · Arnolds Park, IA 51331

$354,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Condo public records · 337 Days on market

Built 2006 $240/sqft · 42% below area Est $616k · 42% under $840/mo HOA · 68% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors!! Completely passive income. Own a piece of Bridges Bay with this 3 room lockout unit that is 1st floor easy access. These hotel style units do not come up very often! The main central unit hosts the kitchen, dining, and living area along with a king suite. Connected on each side are 2 basic hotel style rooms with 2 queen beds in each. The "Trestle" building is directly connected to the indoor and outdoor water park and also provides immediate access to Bracco's and The Waterfront. This building also showcases the fitness center and arcade. Historically most buyers have been investors looking to invest in the hotel aspect of the business, but buyers are NOT required to join the property management system, meaning you could use it as your own personal year-round condo if you wished. If purchased for property management, owners are still allowed up to 14 days of personal use. Don't let this opportunity slip away.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Arcade
• $840 HOA

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR EASY ACCESS
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR WATER PARK
• FITNESS CENTER
• ARCADE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $21k (94.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (65.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $21k (94.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#140 in IA, #2,548 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okoboji Community School District (town): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #40 of 289 in IA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Okoboji Elementary School (math 82% / reading 67%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 533 students, 40% FRL); Okoboji Middle School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #16 of 246 statewide, top 8%, 346 students, 36% FRL); Okoboji High School (math 68% / reading 85%, grade A-, #73 of 336 statewide, top 22%, 365 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 295 units permitted in Dickinson County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dickinson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 68% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $20,594 (94.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 94% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.07%
• DSCR: -0.12
• GRM: 23.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $615,710
• List price: $354,900
• Delta: -42.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $61,477
• Equity at exit: $319,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $285,779
• Equity at exit: $689,493

Cash invested: $99,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51331

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 23.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$840
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-2,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,871

Max offer price $20,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,875	-5% $-1,975	+0% $-2,076	+5% $-2,176	+10% $-2,277
Rent	-10% $-2,174	-5% $-2,125	+0% $-2,076	+5% $-2,027	+10% $-1,977
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,897	-0.5pp $-1,985	base $-2,076	+0.5pp $-2,168	+1.0pp $-2,261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,725
• Closing costs: $10,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $840 · $10,080/yr
• Likely covers: watergym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $354,900 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $354,900 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $354,900 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $354,900 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,900 Active 332 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $354,900 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $354,900 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,900 Active 328 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $354,900 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $354,900 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $354,900 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $354,900 Active 322 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $354,900 Active 321 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $354,900 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,900 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,900 Active 316 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,900 Active 315 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,900 Active 314 DOM
19. 2026-03-25
    price $354,900 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Attention Investors!! Completely passive income. Own a piece of Bridges Bay with this 3 room lockout unit that is 1st floor easy access. These hotel style units do not come up very often! The main central unit hosts the kitchen, dining, and living area along with a king suite. Connected on each side are 2 basic hotel style rooms with 2 queen beds in each. The "Trestle" building is directly connected to the indoor and outdoor water park and also provides immediate access to Bracco's and The Waterfront. This building also showcases the fitness center and arcade. Historically most buyers have been investors looking to invest in the hotel aspect of the business, but buyers are NOT required to join the property management system, meaning you could use it as your own personal year-round condo if you wished. If purchased for property management, owners are still allowed up to 14 days of personal use. Don't let this opportunity slip away.

20. 2025-09-12
    price $369,000 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Attention Investors!! Completely passive income. Own a piece of Bridges Bay with this 3 room lockout unit that is 1st floor easy access. These hotel style units do not come up very often! The main central unit hosts the kitchen, dining, and living area along with a king suite. Connected on each side are 2 basic hotel style rooms with 2 queen beds in each. The "Trestle" building is directly connected to the indoor and outdoor water park and also provides immediate access to Bracco's and The Waterfront. This building also showcases the fitness center and arcade. Historically most buyers have been investors looking to invest in the hotel aspect of the business, but buyers are NOT required to join the property management system, meaning you could use it as your own personal year-round condo if you wished. If purchased for property management, owners are still allowed up to 14 days of personal use. Don't let this opportunity slip away.

21. 2025-07-21
    listed $399,000 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Attention Investors!! Completely passive income. Own a piece of Bridges Bay with this 3 room lockout unit that is 1st floor easy access. These hotel style units do not come up very often! The main central unit hosts the kitchen, dining, and living area along with a king suite. Connected on each side are 2 basic hotel style rooms with 2 queen beds in each. The "Trestle" building is directly connected to the indoor and outdoor water park and also provides immediate access to Bracco's and The Waterfront. This building also showcases the fitness center and arcade. Historically most buyers have been investors looking to invest in the hotel aspect of the business, but buyers are NOT required to join the property management system, meaning you could use it as your own personal year-round condo if you wished. If purchased for property management, owners are still allowed up to 14 days of personal use. Don't let this opportunity slip away.

22. 2010-02-11
    historical
23. 2009-02-11
    listed $339,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,040 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,532/yr (+$128/mo · 61.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,880
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − HOA: −$10,080
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable loss: −$32,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okoboji Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1900021
• Math proficiency: 78% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 66.88/100
• National rank: #403
• State rank: #40 of 289 in IA

Livability — Arnolds Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnolds Park, IA
• City population: 920
• Population (ZIP): 920

Population outlook (Dickinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,133 people
• By 2030: 18,610 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 19,456 · +7.3%
• By 2050: 20,307 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 23,155 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 24,449 · +34.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dickinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.5% · R 69.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+18.0 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.42%
• Current HPI: 207.79
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+4.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $354,900 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $369,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-07-21 Listed $399,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2010-02-11 Listing Removed — REALTOR® Association of the Sioux Empire
• 2009-02-11 Listed $339,900 REALTOR® Association of the Sioux Empire

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,508 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.