202 W Rowena St · Rosebud, TX 76570

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1950 5,227 sqft lot $50/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper! House is located on a nice corner lot in Rosebud. Could be a beautiful home.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#732 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Rosebud-Lott ISD (rural): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #592 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.21%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,954
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -53.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 N 4th St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-5%)	1mo	$249,900	$188	64
507 E Avenue G	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,397 (-0%)	1mo	$135,000	$97	59
518 E Avenue G	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	4mo	$192,000	$127	47
305 N 4th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+12%)	19mo	$149,000	$95	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $18,425
• Equity at exit: $26,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $51,365
• Equity at exit: $36,905

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76570

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,170/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $252	+0% $232	+5% $212	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $191	+0% $232	+5% $272	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $250	base $232	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-12-23
   price $69,900 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Fixer Upper! House is located on a nice corner lot in Rosebud. Could be a beautiful home.

2. 2025-10-23
   price $87,500 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Fixer Upper! House is located on a nice corner lot in Rosebud. Could be a beautiful home.

3. 2025-07-05
   price $99,700 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Fixer Upper! House is located on a nice corner lot in Rosebud. Could be a beautiful home.

4. 2025-05-24
   listed $109,900 Active 89-char remark

   Show marketing remark (89 chars)

   Fixer Upper! House is located on a nice corner lot in Rosebud. Could be a beautiful home.

5. 2007-03-28
   soldstatus
6. 2006-09-29
   soldstatus
7. 2006-04-26
   soldstatus
8. 2006-04-19
   soldstatus
9. 2003-06-23
   soldstatus
10. 2003-06-20
    soldstatus
11. 2002-04-01
    soldstatus
12. 1999-03-16
    soldstatus
13. 1999-02-02
    soldstatus
14. 1992-02-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,170
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $1,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $2,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosebud-Lott ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,597
• Composite: 26.66/100
• National rank: #7167
• State rank: #592 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosebud

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #732
• US rank: #13643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosebud, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,506

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 33% Black 16% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 10% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.66%
• Current HPI: 164.6726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $87,500 NTREIS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $99,700 NTREIS
• 2025-05-24 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2007-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,170 · +35.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.