231 Lamplight Path · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1999 0.70 ac lot $137/sqft · 13% below area Est $229k · 13% under $179/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful chalet style home with Personality plus nestled on two lots among tall trees, backing up to green belt. Texas weather won't affect you in this home since there is a whole house automatic Generac generator. Vaulted ceiling in den and dining area with wall of windows, Beautiful built in hutch, with Cabinets and upper glass paned doors plus a WBFP in the den area. Two eating areas, breakfast area in Kitchen and dining in the open den/dining area. NEW CARPET INSTALLED IN JULY 2025 IN THE MASTER BEDROOM, FORMAL DINING AND DEN. One year home warranty. Whole house Generator automatically comes on if power goes out. There's a Large front porch/deck plus a screened in back porch overlooking peaceful and serene treed setting and a great place for your morning coffee or afternoon tea and for nature lovers and birdwatchers!! Deer are abundant in the area and frequently seen on the property. There are walking trails. LOTS TO DO AT HOLLY LAKE RANCH! 18 Hole Golf Course, Fully Equipped Fitness Center, Lighted Tennis Courts, Lighted Pickle Ball Courts, Walking Trails, Volleyball Courts, Putt Putt Golf Courses, Disk Golf, Playground, Paved Walking Trail, Gun Range, Billiard Parlor, Picnic Areas, Swimming Pools, Dog Park, Lakes. .. Over 50 different Clubs & Organizations. SELLER WILL LOOK AT ALL REASONABLE OFFERS

Key facts

• Large front porch
• 18 hole golf course
• Walking trails

Tags

• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• PEACEFUL TREED SETTING
• WALKING TRAILS
• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Hawkins H S / Middle (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 386 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,360
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -12.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
793 Valleywood Trl	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,449 (-1%)	12mo	$238,000	$164	68
887 Valleywood Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+5%)	16mo	$315,000	$205	64
112 Valleywood Gln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+10%)	7mo	$350,000	$216	50
878 Valleywood Trl	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,641 (+12%)	15mo	$235,000	$143	48
192 Drifting Cloud	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-15%)	14mo	$225,000	$180	48
135 Woodfern Gln	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-8%)	18mo	$304,000	$227	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $19,878
• Equity at exit: $91,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $77,205
• Equity at exit: $141,119

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,667/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $185,136

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-28	+0% $-84	+5% $-141	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-157	+0% $-84	+5% $-12	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-33	base $-84	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,999 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,999 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,999 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,999 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 87 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 86 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    price $199,999 1332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1332 chars)

    Beautiful chalet style home with Personality plus nestled on two lots among tall trees, backing up to green belt. Texas weather won't affect you in this home since there is a whole house automatic Generac generator. Vaulted ceiling in den and dining area with wall of windows, Beautiful built in hutch, with Cabinets and upper glass paned doors plus a WBFP in the den area. Two eating areas, breakfast area in Kitchen and dining in the open den/dining area. NEW CARPET INSTALLED IN JULY 2025 IN THE MASTER BEDROOM, FORMAL DINING AND DEN. One year home warranty. Whole house Generator automatically comes on if power goes out. There's a Large front porch/deck plus a screened in back porch overlooking peaceful and serene treed setting and a great place for your morning coffee or afternoon tea and for nature lovers and birdwatchers!! Deer are abundant in the area and frequently seen on the property. There are walking trails. LOTS TO DO AT HOLLY LAKE RANCH! 18 Hole Golf Course, Fully Equipped Fitness Center, Lighted Tennis Courts, Lighted Pickle Ball Courts, Walking Trails, Volleyball Courts, Putt Putt Golf Courses, Disk Golf, Playground, Paved Walking Trail, Gun Range, Billiard Parlor, Picnic Areas, Swimming Pools, Dog Park, Lakes. .. Over 50 different Clubs & Organizations. SELLER WILL LOOK AT ALL REASONABLE OFFERS

20. 2026-03-05
    listed $205,000 Active 1332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1332 chars)

    Beautiful chalet style home with Personality plus nestled on two lots among tall trees, backing up to green belt. Texas weather won't affect you in this home since there is a whole house automatic Generac generator. Vaulted ceiling in den and dining area with wall of windows, Beautiful built in hutch, with Cabinets and upper glass paned doors plus a WBFP in the den area. Two eating areas, breakfast area in Kitchen and dining in the open den/dining area. NEW CARPET INSTALLED IN JULY 2025 IN THE MASTER BEDROOM, FORMAL DINING AND DEN. One year home warranty. Whole house Generator automatically comes on if power goes out. There's a Large front porch/deck plus a screened in back porch overlooking peaceful and serene treed setting and a great place for your morning coffee or afternoon tea and for nature lovers and birdwatchers!! Deer are abundant in the area and frequently seen on the property. There are walking trails. LOTS TO DO AT HOLLY LAKE RANCH! 18 Hole Golf Course, Fully Equipped Fitness Center, Lighted Tennis Courts, Lighted Pickle Ball Courts, Walking Trails, Volleyball Courts, Putt Putt Golf Courses, Disk Golf, Playground, Paved Walking Trail, Gun Range, Billiard Parlor, Picnic Areas, Swimming Pools, Dog Park, Lakes. .. Over 50 different Clubs & Organizations. SELLER WILL LOOK AT ALL REASONABLE OFFERS

21. 2025-12-20
    historical
22. 2025-11-05
    listed $214,000 Active
23. 2025-11-03
    price $214,000
24. 2025-03-27
    price $218,000
25. 2005-01-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$993/yr (+$83/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,667
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,999 GTAR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $205,000 GTAR
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $214,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $214,000 GTAR
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $218,000 GTAR
• 2005-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,667 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.