14578 Bass Dr #18 · Mountain Gate, CA 96003

$88,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

$71/sqft · at area comps Est $92k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable and well-kept mobile home in Mountain Gate! This home offers a comfortable layout with plenty of natural light, a functional kitchen, and cozy living spaces. Great opportunity to own in a desirable community!

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,255 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $612 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,190 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.38%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,631
• List price: $88,500
• Delta: -3.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14578 Bass Dr #7	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-5%)	3mo	$55,000	$47	89
14578 Bass Dr #14	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	13mo	$40,000	$37	67
14740 Bass Dr #23	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	11mo	$99,000	$83	67
14740 Bass Dr #4	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	13mo	$97,990	$76	66
14740 Bass Dr #36	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$119,990	$104	64
14740 Bass Dr #8	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-15%)	3mo	$105,000	$99	56
14740 Bass Dr #11	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-15%)	11mo	$89,000	$84	48
19821 Califontana Way Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	19mo	$204,000	$177	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $67,779
• Equity at exit: $13,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.48×
• Total profit: $185,246
• Equity at exit: $7,652

Cash invested: $24,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$464
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $1,185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $88,500

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,125
• Closing costs: $2,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $88,500 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,500 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $88,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,500 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $88,500 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $88,500 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $99,000 Active 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Affordable and well-kept mobile home in Mountain Gate! This home offers a comfortable layout with plenty of natural light, a functional kitchen, and cozy living spaces. Great opportunity to own in a desirable community!

18. 2022-05-05
    soldstatus $76,900 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home conveniently located near Bridge Bay, Shasta Lake, Shasta Dam and more! Step into a light and bright open split floorplan with updated flooring, cabinets and new appliances. All appliances, including washer & dryer will remain in the home!! New Master Cool evaportive cooler recently added with digital controller. Large master ensuite with garden tub in bathroom. Mobile home is front facing & perfectly placed on a large corner lot, with new low maintence landscape. Offering plenty of parking and extra storage in outdoor shed.

19. 2021-12-31
    listed $76,900 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home conveniently located near Bridge Bay, Shasta Lake, Shasta Dam and more! Step into a light and bright open split floorplan with updated flooring, cabinets and new appliances. All appliances, including washer & dryer will remain in the home!! New Master Cool evaportive cooler recently added with digital controller. Large master ensuite with garden tub in bathroom. Mobile home is front facing & perfectly placed on a large corner lot, with new low maintence landscape. Offering plenty of parking and extra storage in outdoor shed.

20. 2021-09-17
    listed $81,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 139.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 45 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,957
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − Depreciation: −$2,575
• Taxable income: $13,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,253
• After-tax cash flow: $10,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mountain Gate

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1255
• US rank: #26371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Gate, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+21.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $99,000 SAOR
• 2022-05-05 Sold (MLS) $76,900 SAOR
• 2021-12-31 Listed $76,900 SAOR
• 2021-09-17 Listed $81,500 SAOR

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $281 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.