19690 N Highway 99 #18 · Lodi, CA 95220

$94,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 182 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $112/sqft · at area comps Est $98k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Arbor Mobile Home Park! This updated home features brand-new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, new cabinets, new countertops, a fully renovated bathroom, and more. Situated at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers extra privacy, plenty of space, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Arbor Mobile Home Park is a family community offering great amenities including a pool, clubhouse, and basketball courts. Move-in ready and beautifully upgraded-come see it today!

Key facts

• New flooring
• New cabinets
• New countertops

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.75%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,895
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: -3.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $44,756
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $116,406
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95220

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,008	-5% $975	+0% $943	+5% $910	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $863	+0% $943	+5% $1,022	+10% $1,102
Rate	-1.0pp $990	-0.5pp $967	base $943	+0.5pp $918	+1.0pp $893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Sonora Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	1.0	1032	$2,149	$2.08	3d	1	1.33mi
15 Forrest Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	44d	1	1.44mi
629 N Sacramento St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $94,500 Pending 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $94,500 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $94,500 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $94,500 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $94,500 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,500 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $10,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,503
• After-tax cash flow: $8,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Arbor Mobile Home Park is move-in ready and offers great amenities. It has been updated with new flooring, cabinets, countertops, and a fully renovated bathroom, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Add a small front porch — Improves curb appeal and adds a welcoming touch for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — Improves curb appeal and adds a welcoming touch for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 78,944
• Population (ZIP): 7,958

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 22% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 334.006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B