15051 Rustic Moon Rd · Grangerland, TX 77302

$340,930

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,285 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 10,295 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready in August 2026! Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for ou

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Covered patio
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee of $961; Community pool; Gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); North-facing
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, stone, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Centex
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Solid surface counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $340,930 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,178.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $341k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $263,467 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,178
• List price: $340,930
• Delta: 8.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-41,798
• Equity at exit: $46,696

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,858
• Equity at exit: $27,078

Cash invested: $87,690 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,642
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $313,178

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $218	+0% $129	+5% $41	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $25	+0% $129	+5% $233	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $209	base $129	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,295
• Closing costs: $9,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,930 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,930 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,930 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,930 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,930 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $340,930 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-05-04
   historical
8. 2026-04-18
   listed $339,970 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,239 · $520/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,049/yr (+$421/mo · 424.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,543
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$1,566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,529
• − Management: −$2,529
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$9,111
• Taxable loss: −$3,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$915
• After-tax cash flow: $2,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $340,930 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $339,970 HARMLS

Property tax history

-30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.