10608 Ashville Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2025 $181/sqft · 87% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand-new construction, roughly ten minutes from the Texas Medical Center. The primary suite features a freestanding soaking tub, oversized walk-in closet, and a built-in nook ideal for a reading or WFH corner. Two well-sized secondary bedrooms offer flexibility for guests or a home office. The main level features white oak SPC flooring throughout, and tile in wet areas. A defined living area anchored by a brick accent wall and electric fireplace flows into a kitchen with quartz counters and soft-close cabinets. Trex-decked back patio, fully sodded and gated yard. Pier-and-beam foundation, transfer switch installed for generator hookup, EV charging outlet in the oversized garage, and 7-foot

Key facts

• Brick accent wall
• Built-in nook
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• FREESTANDING SOAKING TUB
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT-IN NOOK
• WHITE OAK SPC FLOORING
• BRICK ACCENT WALL
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Park Street Homes; Approximately 1,800 living area; Concrete road surface; Located in a subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Full ownership; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick, vinyl siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (14 x 15); Bedroom on second level (10 x 11); Bedroom on second level (9 x 12); Office on second level (7 x 6)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on second level (20 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,255/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,494 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,590
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: 87.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10513 Chesterfield Dr	0.08mi	3/3.0	1,820 (+1%)	4mo	$299,999	$165	89
11405 Galway Grove Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,836 (+2%)	0mo	$299,900	$163	68
11404 Lucky Falls Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,775 (-1%)	2mo	$329,760	$186	68
3623 Jipsie Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-10%)	2mo	$205,000	$127	68
11408 Lucky Falls Dr	0.62mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,775 (-1%)	1mo	$367,999	$207	63
3327 Young Clover Way	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-4%)	1mo	$299,900	$173	61
11410 Waterford Spring Trl	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-4%)	1mo	$304,900	$176	60
10307 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,719 (-4%)	2mo	$319,990	$186	56
3609 Dawson Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-8%)	2mo	$200,000	$121	51
10307 Penryn Forest Trl	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-12%)	3mo	$304,990	$192	45
11408 Waterford Spring Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,556 (-14%)	1mo	$277,900	$179	44
10309 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,017 (+12%)	3mo	$329,990	$164	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $151,534
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $478,491
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $257,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-352	+0% $-465	+5% $-577	+10% $-689
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-554	+0% $-465	+5% $-376	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-301	-0.5pp $-382	base $-465	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.55mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.58mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.58mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	19d	1	0.69mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	0.74mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	0.81mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.85mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	0.98mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	1.02mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	1d	1	1.06mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	45d	1	1.23mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	1.29mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	0d	1	1.32mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	1.38mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	1d	1	1.42mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   listed $325,000 Active 982-char remark
4. 2026-05-19
   historical
5. 2026-01-16
   listed $325,000 Active
6. 2026-01-16
   historical
7. 2026-01-07
   listed $315,000 Active
8. 2026-01-05
   historical
9. 2025-11-18
   listed $315,000 Active
10. 2025-11-18
    historical
11. 2025-06-25
    listed $325,000 Active
12. 2025-06-25
    historical
13. 2025-05-05
    listed $335,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$11,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,743
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $335,000 HARMLS