1479 Poga Rd · Beech Mountain, NC 37640

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2023 0.81 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy country living from this one-level 3BR/2BA, 1900sqft. home on . 81 acres. Home offers many recent updates along with level entry, spacious kitchen, walk-in laundry room, spacious baths, dining room, stone fireplace, central heat/ac, wood flooring in several areas, metal roof, partial basement with garage, covered front deck and open side deck. Home is priced to sell below tax value!!

Key facts

• Large island
• 0.81 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY VIEWS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHITE OAK FINISH CABINETRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• GENEROUS EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Water source: see remarks
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; Double wide; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch areas; Front porch; Rear porch; Side porch; Wrap-around porch; Rolling slope lot; Garage(s), outbuilding, shed(s), storage and workshop on property; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Laminate counters
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Laminate counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.2% in Beech Mountain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#331 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carter County (suburban): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #119 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cloudland Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #496 of 952 statewide, top 55%, 269 students, 0% FRL); Cloudland High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #183 of 332 statewide, top 59%, 248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $215k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,397
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $35,124
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37640

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $540	+0% $479	+5% $419	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $391	+0% $479	+5% $568	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $534	base $479	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $225,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$931/yr (+$78/mo · 111.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $2,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$558
• After-tax cash flow: $5,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 4700510
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $33,744
• Composite: 15.92/100
• National rank: #9253
• State rank: #119 of 139 in TN

Livability — Beech Mountain

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #13460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,343

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,493 people
• By 2030: 52,639 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 47,929 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 42,877 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 31,487 · -42.2%
• By 2100: 21,979 · -59.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.9% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -47.2pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+47.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.70%
• Current HPI: 376.3439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+178.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $250,000 TVRMLS
• 2018-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 TVRMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 HCMLS
• 2018-04-12 Listed $89,900 TVRMLS
• 2018-04-12 Listed $89,900 HCMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $832 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.