1202 Bradfield St · Bay City, MI 48706

$99,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1930 0.32 ac lot $90/sqft · at area comps Est $104k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is immediate possession. .. .Enjoy this large 86x155 city lot with a 3 plus detached garage for all your storae needs. Room for at least 4-6 cars to park on asphalt driveway. First floor laundry, bedrooms and some kitchen appliances remain.

Key facts

• 3-bay garage
• New gfa furnace
• Storage loft

Tags

• 3-BAY GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• STORAGE LOFT
• ON DEMAND HOT WATER TANK
• NEW GFA FURNACE
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and workshop space; Garage accommodates 3 cars; Paved driveway and 3 or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: 1 1/2-story residential home; Built in 1930; Property faces road; Entry on the south side of the street
• Construction: Wood exterior construction; Crawlspace foundation; Shingle roof (not specifically listed — roof material not provided)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard with owned fence; Pond on the property; Deep, treed lot with significant depth and width; Walkable to school and located within city limits; Paved, curbed street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen approximately 13 x 9; Breakfast nook on main level approximately 10 x 8; Laminate flooring in kitchen and breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Three upstairs bedrooms — approx. 15 x 12, 10 x 11, and 12 (width); Laminate flooring in all bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring in the living room; Laminate flooring in kitchen, breakfast nook, and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Tankless hot water heater
• Interior features: 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $100k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.89%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,887
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -4.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 Bangor St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-3%)	6mo	$47,000	$44	85
602 Transit St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-4%)	1mo	$156,500	$148	84
1304 LENG St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+9%)	3mo	$98,000	$82	77
1107 Bradfield St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+11%)	3mo	$133,500	$109	76
427 James St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-1%)	3mo	$131,000	$120	75
1106 Lewis St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,203 (+9%)	3mo	$60,000	$50	71
1107 Moore St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-7%)	4mo	$72,000	$70	71
910 E Murphy St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+8%)	6mo	$260,000	$219	64
222 E Murphy St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+5%)	3mo	$212,000	$183	62
202 Elm St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-6%)	1mo	$72,000	$69	58
705 Sidney St	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (-8%)	0mo	$175,000	$174	54
305 Marston St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-14%)	4mo	$80,000	$84	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $23,678
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $71,958
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,627/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $653	+0% $624	+5% $596	+10% $568
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $558	+0% $624	+5% $691	+10% $757
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $650	base $624	+0.5pp $599	+1.0pp $572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 361-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $99,500 Active 361-char remark
3. 2019-10-21
   soldstatus $50,000
4. 2019-10-17
   soldstatus $50,000 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Home is immediate possession. .. .Enjoy this large 86x155 city lot with a 3 plus detached garage for all your storae needs. Room for at least 4-6 cars to park on asphalt driveway. First floor laundry, bedrooms and some kitchen appliances remain.

5. 2019-09-29
   listed $55,000 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Home is immediate possession. .. .Enjoy this large 86x155 city lot with a 3 plus detached garage for all your storae needs. Room for at least 4-6 cars to park on asphalt driveway. First floor laundry, bedrooms and some kitchen appliances remain.

6. 2009-06-08
   soldstatus $55,120

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,627
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $6,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $5,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+80.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $99,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-09-29 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,120 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,627 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.