3901 SW 20th Ave #306 · Gainesville, FL 32607

$171,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Condo public records · 236 Days on market

Built 2001 $210/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful luxury townhome with 2 master suites high ceilings. Seperate dining room and living room. Large Kitchen with oak cabinets. Close to UF, Shands, and on bus route, Units sold subject to existing lease, occupied until 7/31. 5+ Units.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Peninsular bar
• Laundry closet

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED MAIN LEVEL
• PENINSULAR BAR
• GENEROUS STORAGE CLOSET
• LAUNDRY CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $210; HOA managed by Guardian Association Management; Association fees include pool, clubhouse, fitness center, insurance, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, and pest control; Pets allowed (no posted weight limit)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Two-story building; Unit located on first floor; West-facing
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Kensington Condominiums (building 3)
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (10.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Littlewood Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 706 students, 48% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 245 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,748/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3418% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $129k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-38,197
• Equity at exit: $25,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-56,818
• Equity at exit: $14,863

Cash invested: $48,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$901
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,588/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $154,079

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-52	+0% $-101	+5% $-150	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-170	+0% $-101	+5% $-32	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-57	base $-101	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,975
• Closing costs: $5,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	14d	61	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $210 · $2,520/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $171,900
3. 2026-03-23
   price $174,900
4. 2026-03-06
   status Active
5. 2025-12-31
   status Active
6. 2025-12-31
   price $176,900
7. 2025-11-17
   price $178,900
8. 2025-09-17
   price $179,900
9. 2025-08-20
   listed $189,900 Active
10. 2008-01-23
    soldstatus $129,000
11. 2005-07-13
    soldstatus $122,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautiful luxury townhome with 2 master suites high ceilings. Seperate dining room and living room. Large Kitchen with oak cabinets. Close to UF, Shands, and on bus route, Units sold subject to existing lease, occupied until 7/31. 5+ Units.

12. 2005-02-03
    listed $122,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautiful luxury townhome with 2 master suites high ceilings. Seperate dining room and living room. Large Kitchen with oak cabinets. Close to UF, Shands, and on bus route, Units sold subject to existing lease, occupied until 7/31. 5+ Units.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,588 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,588 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,629
• − Property taxes: −$3,588
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − HOA: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$5,001
• Taxable loss: −$3,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$954
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $171,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $176,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $178,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-13 Sold (MLS) $122,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-03 Listed $122,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,588 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.