814 Gnatty Branch Rd · Pigeon Forge, TN 37876

$275,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1955 0.48 ac lot $257/sqft · 52% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH! Check out those AirDNA projections!! WOW!! With up to $10,000 credit from the sellers with an acceptable offer for future furnishing purchases, you will be ready to start making money off the potential short term rental almost immediately! Home has been virtually staged to show potential for a 4-6 person nightly rental. What a lovely, mostly updated 2 bedroom 1/bathroom, one level home with attached carport! With updates galore, it is move in ready to put your final touches on or furnish the home and use for a potential short term rental that is so convenient to the Parkway and Dollywood! The updates include on the exterior, there is new siding, mostly updated windows throughout and newer metal roof! The interior boasts new cabinets with granite countertop, fresh paint, new fixtures, new flooring throughout, updated light fixtures and stainless steel appliances. Buyer to verify all listing information to be correct and accurate.

Key facts

• Bonus theater room
• Gently flowing creek
• Dedicated bunk room

Tags

• CREEKSIDE SETTING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED BUNK ROOM
• BONUS THEATER ROOM
• GENTLY FLOWING CREEK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (single level); Updated/remodeled condition; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Partial wood fencing; Metal roof; Level lot; Paved road access (publicly maintained county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Washer; Microwave; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-690 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (36.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,254 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $574,822
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -52.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Gnatty Branch Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,072 (0%)	0mo	$265,000	$247	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $101,188
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $324,247
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,476

Max offer price $175,156

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-595	+0% $-690	+5% $-785	+10% $-880
Rent	-10% $-817	-5% $-753	+0% $-690	+5% $-627	+10% $-563
Rate	-1.0pp $-552	-0.5pp $-620	base $-690	+0.5pp $-761	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1748 Paulas Huskey Cir Sevierville, TN	3.0	2.5	1276	$4,200	$3.29	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 2185-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   price $275,000 2185-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $300,000 Active 2185-char remark
4. 2026-04-08
   price $300,000
5. 2026-03-17
   price $325,000
6. 2026-02-13
   price $330,000
7. 2026-01-24
   price $349,000
8. 2026-01-20
   listed $332,500

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH! Check out those AirDNA projections!! WOW!! With up to $10,000 credit from the sellers with an acceptable offer for future furnishing purchases, you will be ready to start making money off the potential short term rental almost immediately! Home has been virtually staged to show potential for a 4-6 person nightly rental. What a lovely, mostly updated 2 bedroom 1/bathroom, one level home with attached carport! With updates galore, it is move in ready to put your final touches on or furnish the home and use for a potential short term rental that is so convenient to the Parkway and Dollywood! The updates include on the exterior, there is new siding, mostly updated windows throughout and newer metal roof! The interior boasts new cabinets with granite countertop, fresh paint, new fixtures, new flooring throughout, updated light fixtures and stainless steel appliances. Buyer to verify all listing information to be correct and accurate.

9. 2025-12-04
   price $360,000
10. 2025-10-10
    historical $2,395
11. 2025-09-17
    listed $2,395
12. 2025-07-15
    price $375,000
13. 2025-06-20
    price $385,000
14. 2025-05-23
    price $395,000
15. 2025-05-02
    price $405,000
16. 2025-04-10
    price $415,000
17. 2025-04-03
    price $425,000
18. 2025-03-24
    listed $435,000 Active
19. 2024-06-27
    soldstatus $315,000
20. 2024-06-24
    soldstatus $315,000

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH! Check out those AirDNA projections!! WOW!! With up to $10,000 credit from the sellers with an acceptable offer for future furnishing purchases, you will be ready to start making money off the potential short term rental almost immediately! Home has been virtually staged to show potential for a 4-6 person nightly rental. What a lovely, mostly updated 2 bedroom 1/bathroom, one level home with attached carport! With updates galore, it is move in ready to put your final touches on or furnish the home and use for a potential short term rental that is so convenient to the Parkway and Dollywood! The updates include on the exterior, there is new siding, mostly updated windows throughout and newer metal roof! The interior boasts new cabinets with granite countertop, fresh paint, new fixtures, new flooring throughout, updated light fixtures and stainless steel appliances. Buyer to verify all listing information to be correct and accurate.

21. 2024-06-24
    soldstatus $315,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH! Check out those AirDNA projections!! WOW!! With up to $10,000 credit from the sellers with an acceptable offer for future furnishing purchases, you will be ready to start making money off the potential short term rental almost immediately! Home has been virtually staged to show potential for a 4-6 person nightly rental. What a lovely, mostly updated 2 bedroom 1/bathroom, one level home with attached carport! With updates galore, it is move in ready to put your final touches on or furnish the home and use for a potential short term rental that is so convenient to the Parkway and Dollywood! The updates include on the exterior, there is new siding, mostly updated windows throughout and newer metal roof! The interior boasts new cabinets with granite countertop, fresh paint, new fixtures, new flooring throughout, updated light fixtures and stainless steel appliances. Buyer to verify all listing information to be correct and accurate.

22. 2024-05-22
    status Pending
23. 2024-04-28
    price $332,500
24. 2024-04-18
    status Active
25. 2024-03-26
    status Pending
26. 2024-03-16
    price $338,000
27. 2024-03-07
    price $342,500
28. 2024-03-01
    price $344,900
29. 2024-02-07
    listed $349,900 Active
30. 2021-03-25
    soldstatus $105,000
31. 2021-03-17
    soldstatus $105,000
32. 2021-03-17
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
33. 2021-03-01
    status Pending
34. 2021-02-27
    price $105,000
35. 2021-02-26
    status Active
36. 2021-02-19
    status Pending
37. 2021-02-17
    listed $99,900 Active
38. 2019-10-10
    soldstatus $70,000
39. 2019-10-04
    soldstatus $70,000
40. 2019-06-18
    price $100,000
41. 2019-05-16
    price $105,000
42. 2019-05-05
    price $120,000
43. 2005-04-26
    soldstatus $85,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$2,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$13,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• City population: 21,767
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+209.6% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $265,000 GSMAR
• 2026-05-15 Pending — GSMAR
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $275,000 GSMAR
• 2026-04-27 Listed $300,000 GSMAR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $300,000 GSMAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $325,000 GSMAR
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $330,000 GSMAR
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $349,000 GSMAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $332,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $360,000 GSMAR
• 2025-10-10 Rental Removed $2,395 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-09-17 Listed for Rent $2,395 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $375,000 GSMAR
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $385,000 GSMAR
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $395,000 GSMAR
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $405,000 GSMAR
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $415,000 GSMAR
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $425,000 GSMAR
• 2025-03-24 Listed $435,000 GSMAR
• 2024-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-24 Sold (MLS) $315,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-06-24 Sold (MLS) $315,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-22 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-04-28 Price Changed $332,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-04-18 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-26 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-16 Price Changed $338,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $342,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $344,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-02-07 Listed $349,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-17 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-03-17 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GSMAR
• 2021-03-01 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-27 Price Changed $105,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-26 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-19 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-17 Listed $99,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2019-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-04 Sold (MLS) $70,000 GSMAR
• 2019-06-18 Price Changed $100,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2019-05-16 Price Changed $105,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2019-05-05 Price Changed $120,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2005-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $85,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $264 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.