43 Via Grande · Olivehurst, CA 95901

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 73 Days on market

Built 1979 $69/sqft · 10% below area Est $111k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and clean mobile home in Seville Villa Mobile Home Park. Features gas stove top, brand new central heating and air, covered parking, storage shed, refrigerator and washer and dryer. Move in ready, interior has been completely painted and professionally cleaned. This beautiful mobile park features a swimming pool and club house. Near Hard Rock Casino and Hwys 70 and 65 for an easy commute. Come see this cozy mobile before it's gone!

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Washer and dryer
• Storage shed

Tags

• GAS STOVE TOP
• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR
• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• REFRIGERATOR
• WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.8% in Olivehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#679 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Park Elementary (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,376 of 1,571 statewide, top 89%, 425 students, 80% FRL); Yuba Gardens Intermediate (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #431 of 498 statewide, top 88%, 767 students, 82% FRL); Lindhurst High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,237 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 257 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.17%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,375
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -10.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $57,221
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $137,377
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95901

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,249	-5% $1,221	+0% $1,193	+5% $1,165	+10% $1,136
Rent	-10% $1,015	-5% $1,104	+0% $1,193	+5% $1,282	+10% $1,370
Rate	-1.0pp $1,243	-0.5pp $1,218	base $1,193	+0.5pp $1,167	+1.0pp $1,141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4294 Rancho Rd Marysville, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,500	$2.05	22d	1	0.36mi
4294 Rancho Rd Marysville, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,300	$1.89	15d	1	0.36mi
1920 10th Ave Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,300	$1.98	22d	1	0.94mi
1815 7th Ave Apt B Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	15d	1	1.38mi
1817 7th Ave Unit B Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	45d	1	1.40mi
1726 Valley Meadows Dr Unit A2 Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,099	$1.69	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$44/mo · 236.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $13,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,227
• After-tax cash flow: $11,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Olivehurst

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #20829

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olivehurst, CA
• County: Yuba County · 71,731 people
• City population: 33,999
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,732
• Household income: $69,776
• Rent vs Own: 46.0% rent · 54.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 9% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.01%
• Current HPI: 203.7684
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.