986 Road 5806 · Dayton, TX 77327

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $90/sqft · at area comps Est $146k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Huge Price Drop! Move in Ready!! This home has been updated with shiplap walls and laminate flooring throughout. The oversized lot features a large front yard, plenty of parking and a tree lined back yard for privacy. The primary suite features a soaking tub, separate shower and great closet space. The kitchen offers plenty of storage, and open sightlines for entertaining. The dining room has sliding glass doors leading to the backyard for easy indoor/outdoor living. There is a side entrance off the driveway that leads to the mudroom off the kitchen. This home is a HOT DEAL, and ready for the next chapter! Call for lender information, loan options available!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Large front yard
• Soaking tub

Tags

• SHIPLAP WALLS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• OVERSIZED LOT
• LARGE FRONT YARD
• TREE LINED BACK YARD
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Houston El Norte POA; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Built in 2003; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Cleared lot; Backs to greenbelt/park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free‑standing range; Disposal; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 12 x 15); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (approximately 12 x 10 each); Bedrooms possible: 3
• Flooring: Laminate; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); HVAC energy efficiency features
• Interior features: Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.10%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,761
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 2.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-191
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $35,523
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $396	+0% $353	+5% $311	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $289	+0% $353	+5% $417	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $391	base $353	+0.5pp $314	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $149,900 Active 673-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    historical
17. 2026-03-09
    status Active
18. 2026-01-30
    historical
19. 2025-11-13
    listed $164,900 Active
20. 2025-11-13
    historical
21. 2025-11-07
    price $165,000
22. 2025-04-08
    price $175,000
23. 2025-03-18
    listed $185,000 Active
24. 2025-03-15
    historical
25. 2024-06-03
    historical
26. 2024-03-05
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,925/yr (+$160/mo · 235.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$453
• After-tax cash flow: $3,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home has been updated with shiplap walls and laminate flooring, making it a great deal for potential buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace ceiling tiles — Improves interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace ceiling tiles — Improves interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.