43770 Mayberry · Valle Vista, CA 92544

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1973 6,970 sqft lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this very spacious three-bedroom, two-bath home offering numerous upgrades throughout. Recent improvements include new tile flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms, a new oven and range, a new kitchen sink with updated faucets, and a newer HVAC unit. Entertain with ease at the private bar area, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. An additional bonus room provides flexibility and could easily be converted into a fourth bedroom, office, or hobby space. Enjoy your morning coffee in the cozy sunroom during the winter months or relax on the front porch in the summer. The wrap-around concrete driveway offers convenient access and ample parking in addition to a one car attached garage and RV cover. Located in a 55+ community where you own the land—no space rent. Conveniently situated in Bautista estates Homeowners association that has very reasonable annual fee. Right by a senior center and close to a local police station. Priced to sell—schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• New kitchen sink
• Cozy sunroom

Tags

• NEW TILE FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• PRIVATE BAR AREA
• ADDITIONAL BONUS ROOM
• COZY SUNROOM
• WRAP-AROUND CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Valle Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#739 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $235k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,577
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -0.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43830 Hartley Ave	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,736 (-2%)	8mo	$240,000	$138	85
43609 Walden	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$135	75
43609 Jared Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,640 (-7%)	2mo	$243,000	$148	69
43830 Rassle Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,632 (-8%)	13mo	$349,900	$214	69
43657 Walden Way	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,920 (+8%)	4mo	$267,000	$139	69
43705 Rassle Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,590 (-10%)	9mo	$255,000	$160	67
43743 Hartley Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,560 (-12%)	13mo	$272,500	$175	66
43854 Payne	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (-13%)	2mo	$300,000	$195	64
43766 Pioneer Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-13%)	19mo	$289,000	$188	60
44725 E Florida Ave #212	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-12%)	0mo	$100,000	$64	53
44150 E St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,876 (+6%)	14mo	$365,000	$195	48
45521 State highway 74 #92	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-13%)	18mo	$117,500	$76	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-19,223
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $20,492
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92544

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,480/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,952

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26111 Doverwood Pl Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	1252	$1,849	$1.48	12d	1	0.37mi
43160 San Marcos Pl Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1916	$2,895	$1.51	24d	1	0.73mi
43435 Nola St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	24d	1	1.07mi
44826 Orpington Ave Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,500	$1.76	44d	1	1.20mi
44755 Palm Ave Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,700	$1.83	44d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    price $235,000 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Welcome to this very spacious three-bedroom, two-bath home offering numerous upgrades throughout. Recent improvements include new tile flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms, a new oven and range, a new kitchen sink with updated faucets, and a newer HVAC unit. Entertain with ease at the private bar area, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. An additional bonus room provides flexibility and could easily be converted into a fourth bedroom, office, or hobby space. Enjoy your morning coffee in the cozy sunroom during the winter months or relax on the front porch in the summer. The wrap-around concrete driveway offers convenient access and ample parking in addition to a one car attached garage and RV cover. Located in a 55+ community where you own the land—no space rent. Conveniently situated in Bautista estates Homeowners association that has very reasonable annual fee. Right by a senior center and close to a local police station. Priced to sell—schedule your private showing today.

15. 2026-02-24
    listed $250,000 Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    Welcome to this very spacious three-bedroom, two-bath home offering numerous upgrades throughout. Recent improvements include new tile flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms, a new oven and range, a new kitchen sink with updated faucets, and a newer HVAC unit. Entertain with ease at the private bar area, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. An additional bonus room provides flexibility and could easily be converted into a fourth bedroom, office, or hobby space. Enjoy your morning coffee in the cozy sunroom during the winter months or relax on the front porch in the summer. The wrap-around concrete driveway offers convenient access and ample parking in addition to a one car attached garage and RV cover. Located in a 55+ community where you own the land—no space rent. Conveniently situated in Bautista estates Homeowners association that has very reasonable annual fee. Right by a senior center and close to a local police station. Priced to sell—schedule your private showing today.

16. 2025-07-10
    price $250,000
17. 2025-01-24
    listed $300,000 Active
18. 2018-06-04
    soldstatus $139,000
19. 2018-06-01
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed Sale
20. 2018-05-11
    status Pending Sale
21. 2018-04-26
    price $149,900
22. 2018-02-28
    listed $159,900 Active
23. 2007-10-11
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 2001-09-26
    soldstatus $78,000
25. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus $56,000
26. 1979-11-01
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,480
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$272
• After-tax cash flow: $3,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valle Vista

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #21678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valle Vista, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,751
• Household income: $73,596
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1518.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 40% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.06%
• Current HPI: 391.972
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+754.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-01 Sold (MLS) $139,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-04-26 Price Changed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2018-02-28 Listed $159,900 CRMLS
• 2007-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1979-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,480 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.