3203 Nelson St · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1930 0.25 ac lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this 2 Bedroom 1 Bath home with large Kitchen and separate dining room. Interior has been repainted. All major appliances convey. A large covered front porch and full basement are a plus. Roof installation complete in Jan 2025. This home has off street parking and a Storage Building. Large lot has fenced garden area. Lot backs up to city park with basketball court and playground equipment.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Separate dining room
• Storage building

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL BASEMENT
• OFF STREET PARKING
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built with full basement
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Accessible full bathroom; Garden; Deck and porch; Storm door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup in basement; Laundry in basement; Full basement with sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($492/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William M. Bass Elementary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 175 students, 91% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $150k implies a 809% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,234 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,042
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 3.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2809 Herbert St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-0%)	8mo	$198,500	$199	75
2337 Mosby Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,022 (+2%)	8mo	$173,000	$169	73
3020 Lennox St	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,043 (+4%)	1mo	$105,000	$101	68
3134 Campbell Ave. Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0	868 (-13%)	1mo	$160,000	$184	67
2207 Craig St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,086 (+8%)	2mo	$141,200	$130	67
2216 Mayflower Dr	0.40mi	2/1.0	908 (-9%)	1mo	$60,500	$67	65
1534 Otey St. St	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,031 (+3%)	7mo	$169,900	$165	60
1658 Edmunds St	0.62mi	2/2.0	961 (-4%)	0mo	$103,000	$107	60
1725 Otey St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	961 (-4%)	4mo	$120,000	$125	56
2640 Mayflower Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	962 (-4%)	2mo	$190,800	$198	55
2518 Carter St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,091 (+9%)	2mo	$187,400	$172	52
3212 Swan Pl	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-4%)	8mo	$212,000	$221	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,979
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-26,555
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $83	+0% $41	+5% $-1	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $-7	+0% $41	+5% $89	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $79	base $41	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2205 Easley Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	46d	1	0.23mi
2210 Haden St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,050	$1.34	46d	1	0.24mi
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	23d	1	0.36mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	46d	1	0.47mi
8 Parkwood Ave Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	840	$895	$1.07	15d	1	0.61mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	15d	1	0.92mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	46d	1	0.96mi
1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	46d	1	1.00mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	15d	1	1.12mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	23d	1	1.18mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$707	$0.63	23d	6	1.19mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.20mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	46d	1	1.26mi
1219 Pierce St Unit 1221 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1168	$825	$0.71	15d	1	1.27mi
1810 Laurel St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	46d	1	1.30mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	23d	1	1.38mi
905 Centerdale St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	15d	1	1.39mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	46d	1	1.39mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	46d	1	1.44mi
318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	943	$995	$1.06	23d	1	1.46mi
216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1114	$995	$0.89	46d	1	1.47mi
317 Grove St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	46d	1	1.47mi
803 Mansfield Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-04-29
    listed $150,000 Active 406-char remark
11. 2025-04-13
    status Pending
12. 2025-02-01
    status Active
13. 2025-01-09
    status Pending
14. 2024-10-26
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 1993-11-08
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 35.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$504
• After-tax cash flow: $996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+809.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $150,000 LMLS
• 2025-04-13 Pending — LMLS
• 2025-02-01 Relisted — LMLS
• 2025-01-09 Pending — LMLS
• 2024-10-26 Listed $149,900 LMLS
• 1993-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +47.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.