1323 Trafton Ave · Canton, MS 39046

$174,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $165k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated 3BR/2BA home with multiple living areas, beautiful flooring, large fenced backyard, patio, storage building, and mature shade trees. Convenient Canton location. Move-in ready The roof, carpet, exterior and interior paint is all 1 year old.

Key facts

• Roof 1 year old
• Storage building
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• MOVE IN READY
• ROOF 1 YEAR OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.2% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Canton Public School District (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #100 of 130 in MS (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,579 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1331 Trafton Ave	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,500 (0%)	4mo	$155,000	$103	90
1315 Mcdonald Ave	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,675 (+12%)	7mo	$185,000	$110	66
844 E Academy Street St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,497 (-0%)	9mo	$165,000	$110	59
311 Cisne Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,575 (+5%)	9mo	$35,000	$22	58
843 E Dinkins St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,352 (-10%)	23mo	$175,000	$129	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,973
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,581
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $715/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 249-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $174,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $715 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 92.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$715
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $3,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2800900
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,130
• Composite: 13.44/100
• National rank: #9523
• State rank: #100 of 130 in MS

Livability — Canton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #19396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canton, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+78.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $174,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2014-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-05-31 Listed $85,500 MLSU
• 2011-11-18 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-09-20 Listed $69,900 MLSU
• 2011-08-04 Listed $69,900 MLSU
• 2010-05-17 Listed $97,500 MLSU
• 2005-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $715 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.