Sentosa Plan · Houston, TX 77447

$268,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 350 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $268,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,570.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $236,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,570
• List price: $268,990
• Delta: -13.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28538 Golden Hay Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,644 (0%)	1mo	$291,990	$178	84
28514 Golden Hay Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,644 (0%)	1mo	$282,990	$172	83
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,670 (+2%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	80
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,670 (+2%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	80
16315 Golden Corral Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+1%)	1mo	$318,990	$193	75
16303 Golden Corral Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+1%)	1mo	$332,990	$201	74
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+8%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	69
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+8%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	65
16307 Golden Corral Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-4%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	63
16859 Spotted Oak Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-11%)	1mo	$270,990	$185	61
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	58
28530 Golden Hay Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-14%)	1mo	$263,990	$187	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-66,669
• Equity at exit: $46,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-97,942
• Equity at exit: $27,025

Cash invested: $87,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,689/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $293,162

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $-26	+0% $-134	+5% $-242	+10% $-350
Rent	-10% $-337	-5% $-235	+0% $-134	+5% $-33	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-55	base $-134	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,143
• Closing costs: $9,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	44d	1	0.23mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,990 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $268,990 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,990 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 347 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,990 Active 341 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 340 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,990 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 336 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 335 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 334 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 333 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 332 DOM
15. 2025-07-03
    listed $277,990 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,509
• − Property taxes: −$4,689
• − Insurance: −$1,563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − Depreciation: −$9,093
• Taxable loss: −$7,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $71/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open-concept floor plan and a spa-inspired bathroom. The property is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase its value.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms, making it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants, making it more attractive for both markets.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms, making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants, making it more attractive for both markets. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-03 Listed $277,990 Zillow