Sentosa Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$251,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 447 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $251,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,523.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,751 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.80%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,523
• List price: $251,990
• Delta: -19.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16718 Sparrow Colony Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (+4%)	1mo	$278,990	$162	85
27306 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+9%)	2mo	$283,990	$158	78
16218 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-1%)	2mo	$266,990	$164	74
28927 Bison Haven Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+6%)	0mo	$252,990	$146	72
28915 Bison Haven Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$146	68
16306 Speckled Wren St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+9%)	2mo	$275,991	$154	66
16818 Spotted Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-12%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	65
28915 Rustic Robin Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+9%)	1mo	$284,990	$159	64
29119 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,565 (-5%)	1mo	$272,290	$174	56
29111 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-13%)	1mo	$249,990	$175	38
29127 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-13%)	1mo	$239,990	$168	38
29115 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-14%)	1mo	$243,390	$172	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-79,608
• Equity at exit: $46,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-123,824
• Equity at exit: $27,021

Cash invested: $87,507 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 112 active · 116 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,990 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,688/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $261,890

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-242	+0% $-350	+5% $-458	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-531	-5% $-440	+0% $-350	+5% $-259	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-193	-0.5pp $-270	base $-350	+0.5pp $-431	+1.0pp $-513

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,131
• Closing costs: $9,376
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	139d	1	0.23mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	7d	1	0.28mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	11d	1	0.28mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	10d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $251,990 Active 447 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $251,990 Active 446 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $251,990 Active 445 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $251,990 Active 444 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $251,990 Active 443 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $251,990 Active 442 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $251,990 Active 441 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $251,990 Active 440 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $251,990 Active 439 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $251,990 Active 438 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 437 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $251,990 Active 436 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 429 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 428 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 427 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $248,990 Active 423 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $248,990 Active 422 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $248,990 Active 421 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $248,990 Active 420 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $248,990 Active 418 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $248,990 Active 417 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $248,990 Active 416 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $248,990 Active 415 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $248,990 Active 414 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $248,990 Active 413 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    pricedays on market $248,990 Active 412 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $258,990 Active 411 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $258,990 Active 410 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $258,990 Active 409 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $258,990 Active 408 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $258,990 Active 407 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $258,990 Active 406 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $258,990 Active 405 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $258,990 Active 404 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $258,990 Active 403 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $258,990 Active 402 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $258,990 Active 401 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $258,990 Active 399 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $258,990 Active 398 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $258,990 Active 397 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $258,990 Active 396 DOM
42. 2026-08-01
    price $258,990 Active 393 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $263,990 Active 393 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $263,990 Active 391 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $263,990 Active 390 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $263,990 Active 388 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $263,990 Active 386 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $263,990 Active 385 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $263,990 Active 384 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $263,990 Active 383 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,506
• − Property taxes: −$4,688
• − Insurance: −$1,563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − Depreciation: −$9,092
• Taxable loss: −$9,755
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,341
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open-concept floor plan and a spa-inspired bathroom. The property is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring can enhance the overall look and feel of the bathrooms, making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants, making it more attractive for both markets. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-03 Listed $277,990 Zillow