8206 Marie Ln · Bradenton, FL 34222

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1997 3,345 sqft lot Est $181k · 7% over $171/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sellers Motivated!! Welcome home to this beautifully upgraded pet friendly 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offering 1,300 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features updates including a newer HVAC 2021 system, all newer hurricane windows and sliding door and more, providing peace of mind for years to come. A spacious 2-car covered carport provides ample protected parking. The kitchen is a chef’s delight, showcasing granite countertops, slow-close cabinetry with a convenient lazy-susan, and elegant crown molding. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on the enclosed 9x21 ft. rear patio with a wall ac/unit, overlooking a serene pond—perfect for bird w

Key facts

• Slow-close cabinetry
• Newer windows
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• NEWER WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS COVERED CARPORT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SLOW-CLOSE CABINETRY
• ENCLOSED REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $171); Association requires approval; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, laundry, maintenance, storage, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities, and community mailbox; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed; Golf carts OK; Dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Security: Lobby key required (community amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story (one level); Faces west; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch areas; Front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Outdoor storage and shed(s); Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Ice maker; Exhaust fan; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Double pane windows; Drapes and shades
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,440
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8206 Marie Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	0mo	$187,000	$144	95
3113 Dorothy Pl	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	8mo	$140,000	$108	72
3413 Gloria Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,396 (+8%)	8mo	$163,750	$117	68
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	66
8205 Nancy Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,204 (-7%)	13mo	$165,000	$137	66
3432 71st Ave E	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,296 (0%)	4mo	$230,000	$177	61
3449 71st Ave E	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+8%)	1mo	$268,000	$191	49
3425 71st Ave E	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	13mo	$175,000	$140	47
3445 71st Ave E	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,485 (+15%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,614
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $583
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	23d	1	0.06mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	23d	1	0.22mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	23d	1	0.38mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	21d	1	0.39mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	14d	1	0.54mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	3d	1	0.57mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,445	$1.47	3d	1	0.61mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	3d	1	0.75mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	3d	1	0.97mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	3d	1	1.31mi
5605 78th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,800	$1.98	21d	1	1.31mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $195,000
3. 2026-01-12
   price $215,000
4. 2025-11-14
   listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$818/yr (+$68/mo · 102.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.