5146 Northridge Rd #210 · Palmer Ranch, FL 34238

$135,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Condo public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1999 $399/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +0.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming condo in the desirable Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo features an open and comfortable layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring in the main living area, and crown molding. The private balcony is perfect for relaxing as it overlooks a peaceful preserve area. There is also extra storage with two additional storage units providing plenty of extra space. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities, including two swimming pools, a fitness center, tennis courts and nicely maintained grounds in this gated community. Conveniently located in Palmer Ranch near shopping, dining and a short drive to the world-famous beaches of Siesta Key.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Hardwood flooring
• Extra storage

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• EXTRA STORAGE
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• GATED COMMUNITY
• OVERLOOKS PRESERVE AREA
• HARDWOOD FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($141/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.2%/yr); 488 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $179 of equity ($933 loan paydown + $-754 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,457
• Equity at exit: $35,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-13,478
• Equity at exit: $39,771

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34238

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: -8.2%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,182/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-05-02
   price $135,000 741-char remark

   Show marketing remark (741 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming condo in the desirable Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo features an open and comfortable layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring in the main living area, and crown molding. The private balcony is perfect for relaxing as it overlooks a peaceful preserve area. There is also extra storage with two additional storage units providing plenty of extra space. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities, including two swimming pools, a fitness center, tennis courts and nicely maintained grounds in this gated community. Conveniently located in Palmer Ranch near shopping, dining and a short drive to the world-famous beaches of Siesta Key.

9. 2026-03-12
   listed $145,000 Active 741-char remark

   Show marketing remark (741 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming condo in the desirable Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo features an open and comfortable layout filled with natural light, hardwood flooring in the main living area, and crown molding. The private balcony is perfect for relaxing as it overlooks a peaceful preserve area. There is also extra storage with two additional storage units providing plenty of extra space. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities, including two swimming pools, a fitness center, tennis courts and nicely maintained grounds in this gated community. Conveniently located in Palmer Ranch near shopping, dining and a short drive to the world-famous beaches of Siesta Key.

10. 2014-11-25
    soldstatus $105,000
11. 2014-11-24
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    You will fall in love with this exceptional condo at Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This Gated community is located walking distance to grocery stores, shopping and restaurants. The unit has been entirely re-done with Bruce Hardwood Flooring with a 1/2 inch eco-friendly cork underlay. New porcelain slate tile flooring in the foyer, kitchen & bathroom. All new appliances including water heater. Hard surface Corian counter tops and quartz bar with new sink and fixtures and built in counter water filtration system. Crown moldings throughout along with other designer features including blinds throughout. Brand new fiberglass entry door. All this and just a short drive the World Famous cool white sand of Siesta Beach!! Check this outstanding condo out. You will not be disappointed!!

12. 2014-11-05
    status Pending 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    You will fall in love with this exceptional condo at Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This Gated community is located walking distance to grocery stores, shopping and restaurants. The unit has been entirely re-done with Bruce Hardwood Flooring with a 1/2 inch eco-friendly cork underlay. New porcelain slate tile flooring in the foyer, kitchen & bathroom. All new appliances including water heater. Hard surface Corian counter tops and quartz bar with new sink and fixtures and built in counter water filtration system. Crown moldings throughout along with other designer features including blinds throughout. Brand new fiberglass entry door. All this and just a short drive the World Famous cool white sand of Siesta Beach!! Check this outstanding condo out. You will not be disappointed!!

13. 2014-10-05
    historical Contingent - Financing 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    You will fall in love with this exceptional condo at Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This Gated community is located walking distance to grocery stores, shopping and restaurants. The unit has been entirely re-done with Bruce Hardwood Flooring with a 1/2 inch eco-friendly cork underlay. New porcelain slate tile flooring in the foyer, kitchen & bathroom. All new appliances including water heater. Hard surface Corian counter tops and quartz bar with new sink and fixtures and built in counter water filtration system. Crown moldings throughout along with other designer features including blinds throughout. Brand new fiberglass entry door. All this and just a short drive the World Famous cool white sand of Siesta Beach!! Check this outstanding condo out. You will not be disappointed!!

14. 2014-09-10
    price $109,700 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    You will fall in love with this exceptional condo at Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This Gated community is located walking distance to grocery stores, shopping and restaurants. The unit has been entirely re-done with Bruce Hardwood Flooring with a 1/2 inch eco-friendly cork underlay. New porcelain slate tile flooring in the foyer, kitchen & bathroom. All new appliances including water heater. Hard surface Corian counter tops and quartz bar with new sink and fixtures and built in counter water filtration system. Crown moldings throughout along with other designer features including blinds throughout. Brand new fiberglass entry door. All this and just a short drive the World Famous cool white sand of Siesta Beach!! Check this outstanding condo out. You will not be disappointed!!

15. 2014-08-12
    listed $114,500 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    You will fall in love with this exceptional condo at Serenade at Palmer Ranch. This Gated community is located walking distance to grocery stores, shopping and restaurants. The unit has been entirely re-done with Bruce Hardwood Flooring with a 1/2 inch eco-friendly cork underlay. New porcelain slate tile flooring in the foyer, kitchen & bathroom. All new appliances including water heater. Hard surface Corian counter tops and quartz bar with new sink and fixtures and built in counter water filtration system. Crown moldings throughout along with other designer features including blinds throughout. Brand new fiberglass entry door. All this and just a short drive the World Famous cool white sand of Siesta Beach!! Check this outstanding condo out. You will not be disappointed!!

16. 2013-12-17
    soldstatus $50,000
17. 2013-05-16
    soldstatus $84,600
18. 2013-04-10
    listed $79,900
19. 2012-09-11
    historical
20. 2012-05-12
    listed $67,500
21. 2012-04-17
    historical
22. 2011-08-15
    listed $63,400
23. 2005-09-23
    listed $190,000
24. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $30,175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,182
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmer Ranch, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,821
• Household income: $97,926
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 232.3872
• Rent YoY: ▼ -8.18%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-24 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-05 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-10 Price Changed $109,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-12 Listed $114,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-16 Sold (MLS) $84,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-10 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-12 Listed $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-15 Listed $63,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-23 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $30,175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,182 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.