20 Hawley St · Oswego, NY 13126

$239,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1910 0.45 ac lot Est $185k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

Key facts

• Private deck
• Freshly painted
• New appliances

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• WHITE CABINETRY
• NEW APPLIANCES
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM SUITE
• PRIVATE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $240k implies a 694% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $232,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
286 W 7th St	0.28mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,763 (-2%)	1mo	$210,000	$119	76
216 W 4th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (-0%)	2mo	$134,900	$76	70
358 W 3rd St	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,808 (+1%)	3mo	$186,500	$103	68
274 W 5th St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,834 (+2%)	4mo	$160,000	$87	68
121 W Oneida St	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,706 (-5%)	5mo	$129,900	$76	64
26 Varick St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,782 (-1%)	8mo	$145,000	$81	64
136 W Seneca St	0.73mi	4/1.0	1,825 (+2%)	6mo	$132,000	$72	54
42 W Mohawk St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,701 (-5%)	7mo	$120,000	$71	51
8 Sunrise Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-12%)	8mo	$245,000	$155	44
96 Ellen St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,017 (+13%)	5mo	$272,500	$135	44
54 Kennedy Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	7mo	$190,000	$113	43
208 Hillside Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,566 (-13%)	8mo	$230,000	$147	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-914
• Equity at exit: $43,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $85,209
• Equity at exit: $34,856

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,438/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
137 W Mohawk St Oswego, NY	5.0	2.5	1904	$2,875	$1.51	44d	1	0.38mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	13d	1	0.44mi
175 W 8th St Unit 1 A Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,625	$1.46	44d	1	0.44mi
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	13d	1	0.50mi
9 Lathrop St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	13d	1	0.53mi
152 W 7th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,300	$0.98	13d	1	0.54mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	13d	1	0.55mi
144 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	13d	1	0.56mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	13d	1	0.60mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	13d	1	0.61mi
138 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,300	$1.15	13d	1	0.62mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	13d	1	0.62mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	13d	1	0.63mi
141 W Cayuga St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	13d	1	0.64mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	13d	1	0.68mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	13d	1	0.70mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	13d	1	0.70mi
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	13d	1	0.71mi
164 W Schuyler St Unit A Oswego, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	13d	1	0.80mi
120 Sheldon Ave Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,480	$1.18	13d	1	0.86mi
39 W 6th St Unit 2-A Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	13d	1	0.88mi
7040 State Route 104 Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,625	$1.46	13d	1	1.06mi
14 Pond Path Oswego, NY	3.0	1.5	1408	$2,300	$1.63	13d	1	1.07mi
7093 State Route 104 Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,750	$1.53	13d	1	1.29mi
7095 New York 104 Unit A Oswego, NY	5.0	1.5	1984	$2,750	$1.39	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $239,900
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2020-09-04
   soldstatus $30,199 Closed Sale or Rented 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

5. 2020-07-08
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

6. 2020-06-18
   price $25,000 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

7. 2020-05-20
   price $29,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

8. 2020-04-21
   price $34,900 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

9. 2020-03-18
   listed $39,900 Active 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   this needs some TLC, but has potential and a very deep back yard and a large rear deck. this home is located on the volume traffic area in the city , mostely single family homes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,438 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,246 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$808/yr (+$67/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,438
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+501.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $239,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $30,199 CNYIS
• 2020-07-08 Pending — CNYIS
• 2020-06-18 Price Changed $25,000 CNYIS
• 2020-05-20 Price Changed $29,900 CNYIS
• 2020-04-21 Price Changed $34,900 CNYIS
• 2020-03-18 Listed $39,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,438 · +50.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.