15148 Highway 9 · Malvern, AR 72104

$98,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1940 2.15 ac lot Est $113k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large 2 acre lot close to town. This property offers solid wood floors, large dining, living room with wood burning fireplace. Some upgrades throughout the home. Lot offers an outbuilding with interior space as well as lean-to space for mowers. Circle Drive makes for easy in and out of property. See associated documents for full legal. AGENTS see the agent remarks

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Circle drive
• Solid wood floors

Tags

• 2 ACRE LOT
• SOLID WOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OUTBUILDING
• CIRCLE DRIVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.15 acres
• Financial info: Financing available: conventional loan or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 1 car
• Utilities: Septic system; Public water; Electric service (municipal plus Entergy); Insulated windows
• Home design: Frame construction
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Frame exterior
• Exterior features: Front porch; Outside storage area; Level and rural lot; Not in a subdivision; Paved road access; Livestock allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range
• Flooring: Wood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split system
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Ceiling fans; Formica kitchen countertops; Wood-burning site-built fireplace; Sheetrock walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.3% in Malvern — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#215 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Malvern School District (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #207 of 238 in AR (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Malvern Elementary School (math 28% / reading 20%, grade F, #359 of 454 statewide, top 79%, 701 students, 77% FRL); Malvern High School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #239 of 292 statewide, top 85%, 575 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $98k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.60%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,700
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11169 Leau Fraiz Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-2%)	2mo	$109,900	$114	79
10862 Leau Fraiz Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+12%)	14mo	$154,500	$140	43
384 Clovis Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,072 (+9%)	20mo	$123,000	$115	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,445
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $25,653
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72104

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $316	+0% $288	+5% $260	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $243	+0% $288	+5% $333	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $313	base $288	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $98,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $98,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $98,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $98,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-05-12
   price $98,000
9. 2026-04-30
   listed $120,000 New Listing
10. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $24,000
11. 2004-08-05
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$3/yr ($0/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $1,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $2,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malvern School District
• NCES district ID: 0509240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,370
• Composite: 17.76/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #207 of 238 in AR

Livability — Malvern

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #16632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,222

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.79%
• Current HPI: 211.6419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+81.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $98,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $120,000 CARMLS
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.