204 Pennington Rd · Josephine, TX 75173

$314,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · Other public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2025 8,146 sqft lot $175/sqft · 10% below area Est $359k · 12% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As low as 4.99% interest rate available with special conditions Builder Incentives or Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer and 5k towards buyer's closing costs. Call agent for info. Beautiful NEW CONSTRUCTION home in a great location within easy reach of great schools, Parks, lakes, shopping, dining & more. This home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & 1,839 sq ft of living space. The open concept design of the main area creates a spacious feel, perfect for entertaining or spending time with family. The living room has large windows for natural light to flood the space. The kitchen is equipped with modern stainless-steel appliances, granite countertops, ample storage & pantry. The spacious primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking garden bathtub, walk-in shower & large walk-in closet. The 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles & additional storage. If this floor plan does not suit your needs, there's other homes that are listed or close to being finished. For a private showing or virtual tour text TDT#18 to 88000

Key facts

• New construction
• Open concept design
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• SOAKING GARDEN BATHTUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,161 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,570
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -12.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $156,658
• Equity at exit: $283,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $472,595
• Equity at exit: $611,781

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $274,139

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	0.31mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	0.53mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	0.67mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	0.67mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	0.68mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	0.69mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	4d	1	0.70mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	43d	1	0.71mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	43d	1	0.74mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	12d	1	0.76mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	18d	1	0.78mi
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	1d	1	0.86mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	43d	1	0.87mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	0.88mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	10d	1	0.88mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	0.89mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	1d	1	0.89mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	12d	1	0.91mi
1117 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	5.0	2.5	1954	$2,095	$1.07	43d	1	0.93mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	43d	1	0.94mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	0.95mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	0.96mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	43d	1	0.96mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	10d	1	0.99mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	12d	1	1.20mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	43d	1	1.22mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.26mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	7d	1	1.28mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	24d	1	1.29mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	24d	1	1.32mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	43d	1	1.32mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	2d	1	1.35mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	1.36mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	1.36mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	43d	1	1.37mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	43d	1	1.48mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.48mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	1.49mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,900 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,900 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,900 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $314,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    price $314,900 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    As low as 4.99% interest rate available with special conditions Builder Incentives or Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer and 5k towards buyer's closing costs. Call agent for info. Beautiful NEW CONSTRUCTION home in a great location within easy reach of great schools, Parks, lakes, shopping, dining & more. This home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & 1,839 sq ft of living space. The open concept design of the main area creates a spacious feel, perfect for entertaining or spending time with family. The living room has large windows for natural light to flood the space. The kitchen is equipped with modern stainless-steel appliances, granite countertops, ample storage & pantry. The spacious primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking garden bathtub, walk-in shower & large walk-in closet. The 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles & additional storage. If this floor plan does not suit your needs, there's other homes that are listed or close to being finished. For a private showing or virtual tour text TDT#18 to 88000

16. 2026-02-13
    listed $319,900 Active 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    As low as 4.99% interest rate available with special conditions Builder Incentives or Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer and 5k towards buyer's closing costs. Call agent for info. Beautiful NEW CONSTRUCTION home in a great location within easy reach of great schools, Parks, lakes, shopping, dining & more. This home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & 1,839 sq ft of living space. The open concept design of the main area creates a spacious feel, perfect for entertaining or spending time with family. The living room has large windows for natural light to flood the space. The kitchen is equipped with modern stainless-steel appliances, granite countertops, ample storage & pantry. The spacious primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks, soaking garden bathtub, walk-in shower & large walk-in closet. The 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles & additional storage. If this floor plan does not suit your needs, there's other homes that are listed or close to being finished. For a private showing or virtual tour text TDT#18 to 88000

17. 2026-02-12
    historical
18. 2026-01-19
    price $324,900
19. 2025-11-17
    listed $334,900 Active
20. 2025-11-16
    historical
21. 2025-11-06
    price $339,900
22. 2025-10-15
    price $344,900
23. 2025-09-22
    price $349,900
24. 2025-08-29
    listed $358,900 Active
25. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,050 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,763 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,712/yr (+$393/mo · 448.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$8,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $314,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $319,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $324,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $334,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $339,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $344,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $349,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $358,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,050 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.