403 Jersey City Ct · Forked River, NJ 08734

$829,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,727 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1986 7,501 sqft lot $480/sqft · 34% above area Est $733k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expanded in all the right places, this exceptional waterfront ranch delivers refined coastal living at its finest. Set in a highly desirable and peaceful location on a private cul-de-sac, the property offers both privacy and tranquility while remaining close to everything you need. Boasting 75 feet of brand-new vinyl bulkhead with dockage, this home is a dream for boating enthusiasts, providing effortless access to open water. The maintenance-free landscaping in both the front and rear yards ensures a pristine, low-maintenance lifestyle year-round. Step outside to your expansive Trex deck, where multiple awnings provide elegant shade for relaxing or entertaining while enjoying breathtaking sunset views over the water. Inside, the residence features 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full baths, along with a thoughtfully designed layout. The kitchen is outfitted with sleek stainless steel appliances, combining modern sophistication with everyday functionality. A 1-car garage adds convenience, while a newer roof offers lasting peace of mind. This is waterfront living redefined—where luxury, comfort, and a serene setting come together seamlessly. Your Private Waterfront Retreat Awaits You!!!

Key facts

• Waterfront ranch
• Vinyl bulkhead
• Dockage

Tags

• WATERFRONT RANCH
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• VINYL BULKHEAD
• DOCKAGE
• TREX DECK
• MAINTENANCE-FREE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $829k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-41k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (72.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (61.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (72.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $829k implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,663 (72.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.48%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 21.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $732,924
• List price: $829,000
• Delta: 13.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 Drew Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,701 (-2%)	3mo	$450,000	$265	71
321 Lawrence Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-1%)	7mo	$579,000	$340	71
906 Bowsprit Pt	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,761 (+2%)	0mo	$855,000	$486	71
710 Hazelton Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-10%)	1mo	$470,000	$303	68
409 Sinclair Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-8%)	5mo	$491,000	$307	65
619 Clairmore Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,577 (-9%)	0mo	$392,000	$249	65
301 Chestnut Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-2%)	3mo	$510,000	$302	64
611 Pine St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,528 (-12%)	7mo	$379,000	$248	63
830 Deguise St	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,862 (+8%)	1mo	$625,000	$336	59
834 E Hickory Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,603 (-7%)	4mo	$520,000	$324	57
202 Lawrence Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (+5%)	3mo	$545,000	$301	53
309 Lawrence Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-15%)	0mo	$390,000	$265	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-352,024
• Equity at exit: $123,607

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.53×
• Total profit: $-586,301
• Equity at exit: $71,677

Cash invested: $232,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 21.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,347
• Tax from tax record: −$850 /mo · $10,202/yr
• Insurance: −$345
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-3,421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,556

Max offer price $224,663

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,952	-5% $-3,186	+0% $-3,421	+5% $-3,656	+10% $-3,890
Rent	-10% $-3,676	-5% $-3,548	+0% $-3,421	+5% $-3,294	+10% $-3,166
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,004	-0.5pp $-3,210	base $-3,421	+0.5pp $-3,636	+1.0pp $-3,854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,250
• Closing costs: $24,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	2d	1	0.39mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,000	$2.22	44d	1	0.58mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,300	$2.44	21d	1	0.58mi
988 Capstan Dr Forked River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1467	$3,500	$2.39	22d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Expanded in all the right places, this exceptional waterfront ranch delivers refined coastal living at its finest. Set in a highly desirable and peaceful location on a private cul-de-sac, the property offers both privacy and tranquility while remaining close to everything you need. Boasting 75 feet of brand-new vinyl bulkhead with dockage, this home is a dream for boating enthusiasts, providing effortless access to open water. The maintenance-free landscaping in both the front and rear yards ensures a pristine, low-maintenance lifestyle year-round. Step outside to your expansive Trex deck, where multiple awnings provide elegant shade for relaxing or entertaining while enjoying breathtaking sunset views over the water. Inside, the residence features 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full baths, along with a thoughtfully designed layout. The kitchen is outfitted with sleek stainless steel appliances, combining modern sophistication with everyday functionality. A 1-car garage adds convenience, while a newer roof offers lasting peace of mind. This is waterfront living redefined—where luxury, comfort, and a serene setting come together seamlessly. Your Private Waterfront Retreat Awaits You!!!

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Under Contract 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Expanded in all the right places, this exceptional waterfront ranch delivers refined coastal living at its finest. Set in a highly desirable and peaceful location on a private cul-de-sac, the property offers both privacy and tranquility while remaining close to everything you need. Boasting 75 feet of brand-new vinyl bulkhead with dockage, this home is a dream for boating enthusiasts, providing effortless access to open water. The maintenance-free landscaping in both the front and rear yards ensures a pristine, low-maintenance lifestyle year-round. Step outside to your expansive Trex deck, where multiple awnings provide elegant shade for relaxing or entertaining while enjoying breathtaking sunset views over the water. Inside, the residence features 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full baths, along with a thoughtfully designed layout. The kitchen is outfitted with sleek stainless steel appliances, combining modern sophistication with everyday functionality. A 1-car garage adds convenience, while a newer roof offers lasting peace of mind. This is waterfront living redefined—where luxury, comfort, and a serene setting come together seamlessly. Your Private Waterfront Retreat Awaits You!!!

3. 2026-04-20
   listed $829,000 Active 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   Expanded in all the right places, this exceptional waterfront ranch delivers refined coastal living at its finest. Set in a highly desirable and peaceful location on a private cul-de-sac, the property offers both privacy and tranquility while remaining close to everything you need. Boasting 75 feet of brand-new vinyl bulkhead with dockage, this home is a dream for boating enthusiasts, providing effortless access to open water. The maintenance-free landscaping in both the front and rear yards ensures a pristine, low-maintenance lifestyle year-round. Step outside to your expansive Trex deck, where multiple awnings provide elegant shade for relaxing or entertaining while enjoying breathtaking sunset views over the water. Inside, the residence features 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full baths, along with a thoughtfully designed layout. The kitchen is outfitted with sleek stainless steel appliances, combining modern sophistication with everyday functionality. A 1-car garage adds convenience, while a newer roof offers lasting peace of mind. This is waterfront living redefined—where luxury, comfort, and a serene setting come together seamlessly. Your Private Waterfront Retreat Awaits You!!!

4. 1986-03-06
   soldstatus $150,310

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,202 · $850/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,422 · $1,285/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,220/yr (+$435/mo · 51.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,437
• − Property taxes: −$10,202
• − Insurance: −$9,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,097
• − Management: −$3,097
• − Depreciation: −$24,116
• Taxable loss: −$57,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-27,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+451.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $829,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $150,310 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,202 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.