4401 Wilmer Dr · Tillmans Corner, AL 36619

$139,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1982 0.39 ac lot $97/sqft · 18% below area Est $172k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bed 1 1/2 bath House will make a Great income producing rental Property, or would make a great home for someone wanting a house for under 100k. The inside will need to be painted and may need a few updates. Call your favorite Realtor and make your appt today! Listing Agent makes no representation to accuracy of sq. ft. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Tillmans Corner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#260 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $140k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.19%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,614
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -18.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4570 Schimpfs Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	6mo	$220,000	$151	74
4651 Emerald Dr W	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,375 (-4%)	5mo	$178,500	$130	69
4639 Emerald Dr E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-6%)	7mo	$205,000	$152	65
4483 Bedford Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	10mo	$57,000	$36	63
4571 Golden Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	8mo	$180,000	$133	62
4580 Schimpfs Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,514 (+5%)	6mo	$239,000	$158	61
4813 Emerald Dr W	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-4%)	8mo	$187,500	$136	56
4301 Derby Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+9%)	9mo	$215,000	$137	56
4713 Emerald Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	8mo	$187,500	$144	53
7202 N Mill House Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	2mo	$190,000	$151	44
4860 Lucinda Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$159,900	$128	43
4931 Camelot Dr W	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	9mo	$201,000	$124	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,867
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,707
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36619

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5920 Windy Hill Cir S Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	21d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   price $139,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-05-12
   price $155,000 181-char remark
9. 2026-05-01
   listed $165,000 Active 181-char remark
10. 2022-05-11
    soldstatus $83,000
11. 2022-05-10
    soldstatus $83,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This 3 bed 1 1/2 bath House will make a Great income producing rental Property, or would make a great home for someone wanting a house for under 100k. The inside will need to be painted and may need a few updates. Call your favorite Realtor and make your appt today! Listing Agent makes no representation to accuracy of sq. ft. Buyer to verify all information.

12. 2020-07-16
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tillmans Corner

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #18090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tillmans Corner, AL
• City population: 14,550
• Population (ZIP): 14,550

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Vietnamese 5% Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.67%
• Current HPI: 197.1074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+249.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $139,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $145,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $155,000 GCMLS AL
• 2022-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-10 Sold (MLS) $83,000 GCMLS AL
• 2020-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.