9105 Madrone Way · Redding, CA 96002

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Land public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1967 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY!!! Just 10 minutes from town, this one-acre property offers peace and quiet with lots of potential. The two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured home needs some TLC but has great bones. There's also a big 30 x 40 shop—perfect for storage, hobbies, or projects. The property is fully fenced with a gated entrance, giving you space and privacy. A great opportunity to fix up and make it your own countryside retreat.

Key facts

• Big shop
• Fully fenced
• Gated entrance

Tags

• ONE ACRE PROPERTY
• BIG SHOP
• FULLY FENCED
• GATED ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,333 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,734
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,580
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,429/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $214	+0% $169	+5% $124	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $109	+0% $169	+5% $228	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $209	base $169	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-27
   price $159,000
3. 2025-12-18
   listed $199,000 Active
4. 2025-12-17
   listed $199,000 Active
5. 2024-03-01
   listed $169,900 Active
6. 2024-02-23
   listed $169,900 Active
7. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $134,881
8. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $135,000
9. 2019-04-17
   listed $139,900
10. 2019-01-29
    soldstatus $60,000
11. 2019-01-29
    soldstatus $60,000
12. 2018-08-20
    listed $75,000
13. 2000-12-14
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 41 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,429
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$144
• After-tax cash flow: $2,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+194.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $159,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-18 Listed $199,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-17 Listed $199,000 SAOR
• 2024-03-01 Listed $169,900 SAOR
• 2024-02-23 Listed $169,900 SAOR
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $134,881 SAOR
• 2019-04-17 Listed $139,900 SAOR
• 2019-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-29 Sold (MLS) $60,000 SAOR
• 2018-08-20 Listed $75,000 SAOR
• 2000-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,429 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.