16 Towner Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1985 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is full of possibilities. Zoned residential/commercial next to Bon's ice cream and the Warren County snowmobile trail system. You need nothing to enjoy this great ranch home featuring 2-3 bedrooms, totally redone inside and out! New kitchen, bath , furnace and roof. Just bring your toothbrush and move right in!

Key facts

• New vanity
• Snowmobile trails
• Scenic walking path

Tags

• SNOWMOBILE TRAILS
• SCENIC WALKING PATH
• BRIGHT FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW VANITY
• SPOTLESS INTERIOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage; Room for a total of 6 parking spaces; Driveway parking; Paved parking; Garage with door opener and workshop/storage space inside
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Entry at main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal and shingle roof; Built with conventional residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear screened porch; Paved driveway; Partial fencing; Shed(s); Workshop; Additional garage/storage structure; Road frontage and cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Wood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet available (DSL); Paddle fan; Walk-in closets; Shutters and window coverings; Curtain rods; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry closet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $189k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.72%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $189,230
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.25×
• Total profit: $489,415
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,043/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $1,355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $189,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-04-24
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $189,000 Active
4. 2012-08-13
   soldstatus $70,000
5. 2012-08-09
   soldstatus $70,000 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This property is full of possibilities. Zoned residential/commercial next to Bon's ice cream and the Warren County snowmobile trail system. You need nothing to enjoy this great ranch home featuring 2-3 bedrooms, totally redone inside and out! New kitchen, bath , furnace and roof. Just bring your toothbrush and move right in!

6. 2012-03-05
   listed $79,999 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This property is full of possibilities. Zoned residential/commercial next to Bon's ice cream and the Warren County snowmobile trail system. You need nothing to enjoy this great ranch home featuring 2-3 bedrooms, totally redone inside and out! New kitchen, bath , furnace and roof. Just bring your toothbrush and move right in!

7. 2004-11-03
   soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,043 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,619 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,043
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,153
• − Management: −$3,153
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $14,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,369
• After-tax cash flow: $12,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Luzerne, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+464.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $189,000 Global MLS
• 2012-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-09 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Global MLS
• 2012-03-05 Listed $79,999 Global MLS
• 2004-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,043 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.