221 Bayview Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$315,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1990 7,840 sqft lot $142/sqft · 9% below area Est $354k · 11% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Double trey accents
• Crown moulding
• Waterfront home

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• SLATE TILE FLOORING
• CROWN MOULDING
• TALL SMOOTH CEILINGS
• DOUBLE TREY ACCENTS
• BUILT INS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,629 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,292
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -11.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Bayview Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,153 (-3%)	1mo	$379,900	$176	84
279 Bayview Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,254 (+2%)	6mo	$374,500	$166	78
20 Moss Woods Cv	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,141 (-3%)	5mo	$335,000	$156	75
54 Moss Woods Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,139 (-3%)	8mo	$354,900	$166	74
69 Moss Woods Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,351 (+6%)	0mo	$369,900	$157	71
77 Moss Woods Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,393 (+8%)	1mo	$365,000	$153	67
208 Windrose Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,228 (+1%)	15mo	$350,000	$157	63
93 Napa Valley Cir	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,409 (+9%)	1mo	$359,900	$149	60
57 Napa Valley Cir	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,224 (+0%)	9mo	$389,000	$175	56
213 Kiowa Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,352 (+6%)	8mo	$280,000	$119	54
332 Kiowa Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,314 (+5%)	7mo	$279,900	$121	43
116 Oak Hollow Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,454 (+11%)	11mo	$268,500	$109	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-42,175
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-28,487
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,457

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	23d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $315,000 Pending 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $315,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-05-08
    price $349,000 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

12. 2026-03-29
    price $351,000 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

13. 2026-03-24
    status Active 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

14. 2026-03-11
    status Pending 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

15. 2026-03-08
    price $363,000 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

16. 2026-02-12
    listed $370,000 Active 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    Welcome to 221 Bayview Drive, a beautifully designed Mediterranean‑inspired waterfront home in the Baytowne Square area of Northbay. This property offers peaceful views of a Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and a community fountain, all enjoyed from the breezy front porch. Inside, the open and light‑filled layout features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a formal dining room, and a spacious living/kitchen area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The property includes thoughtful upgrades such as slate tile flooring, extensive crown moulding, tall smooth ceilings with double trey accents, built‑ins, gas cooking, and generous storage throughout. Large windows with wood blinds bring in abundant natural light, and the split‑plan layout offers comfort and privacy. Outdoor living is just as appealing with a covered back porch, and easy access to neighborhood amenities including walking paths, tennis courts, and the community pool overlooking the Reservoir. Boat slips and Rez access are also available nearby. This well‑crafted, single‑story home combines custom details with a prime waterfront setting. It's a standout opportunity in Northbay—schedule your showing today.

17. 2019-08-26
    soldstatus 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    Paradise Found! This Mediterranean inspired, waterfront property radiates easy summer living every day of the year! Located in the sought after, Baytowne Square area of Northbay in Madison. Go ahead and get ready to relax on your breezy front porch with views of the Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and cascading fountain. The light and airy floor plan encompasses 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, formal dining and open Living/Kitchen all sparkling with natural light. An added bonus is NEW ROOF has been approved and will be complete in July. When not enjoying your new found paradise, Northbay offers sidewalks for leisurely strolls beside the water, tennis courts within walking distance and a community pool on the Rez! Boat slips and Rez access also available just steps from your front door. This unique, single story, split plan on the water will not last long! Call your favorite Realtor today to view.

18. 2019-05-18
    listed $259,900 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    Paradise Found! This Mediterranean inspired, waterfront property radiates easy summer living every day of the year! Located in the sought after, Baytowne Square area of Northbay in Madison. Go ahead and get ready to relax on your breezy front porch with views of the Ross Barnett Reservoir inlet and cascading fountain. The light and airy floor plan encompasses 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, formal dining and open Living/Kitchen all sparkling with natural light. An added bonus is NEW ROOF has been approved and will be complete in July. When not enjoying your new found paradise, Northbay offers sidewalks for leisurely strolls beside the water, tennis courts within walking distance and a community pool on the Rez! Boat slips and Rez access also available just steps from your front door. This unique, single story, split plan on the water will not last long! Call your favorite Realtor today to view.

19. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus
20. 2002-11-06
    soldstatus
21. 2002-08-22
    listed $238,800
22. 1994-01-28
    soldstatus
23. 1994-01-28
    soldstatus
24. 1994-01-19
    soldstatus
25. 1993-10-13
    soldstatus
26. 1993-04-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,251/yr (+$104/mo · 101.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,238
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$3,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$841
• After-tax cash flow: $2,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+46.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $349,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $351,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $363,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-12 Listed $370,000 MLSU
• 2019-08-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-05-18 Listed $259,900 MLSU
• 2002-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-11-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2002-08-22 Listed $238,800 MLSU
• 1994-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,238 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.