21288 W Granite Ridge Rd · Congress, AZ 85332

$148,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Manufactured · 445 Days on market

Built 2006 3,485 sqft lot Est $175k · 15% under $54/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Make this charming home your full or part time resident. Live in this nice community of North Ranch. Located between Wickenburg and Congress. State and BLM surrounds this quiet community. 227 sq ft make up a beautiful enclosed Arizona room with large windows to enjoy the natural light. This added sq footage makes this home a nice spacious place to call home. Lots of cabinets in the kitchen and livingroom. Shades throughout the home. Large closet with storage under the bed. Relax on your covered front porch. Covered carport. Storage room with shelving and stackable washer and dryer. Double (French) doors open up for easy access. Easy maintenance. Lock and leave. Come take a look and make thi

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered carport
• Double doors

Tags

• ENCLOSED ARIZONA ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE ROOM WITH SHELVING
• STACKABLE WASHER AND DRYER
• DOUBLE DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features include gravel/stone front and back
• Financial info: Non-assumable financing
• HOA & community: Has association; Annual association fee of $652; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community features include pickleball courts

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); Carport (1 space); Separate storage area
• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Steel frame; Wood frame; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back; Mountain view; Storage; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Electric range/oven; Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Window/wall unit air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Community coin-operated laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#75 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Congress Elementary District (4479) (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #91 of 501 in AZ (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Congress Elementary School (math 44% / reading 34%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 102 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Congress Elementary District (4479) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,820 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,140
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21261 W Wind Spirit Ln Lot 317	0.03mi	1/1.0	650 (+3%)	16mo	$181,000	$278	80
21305 W Trading Post Trl #376	0.12mi	1/1.0	610 (-3%)	12mo	$164,980	$270	79
21325 W Outlaw Dr	0.06mi	1/1.0	578 (-8%)	7mo	$160,000	$277	77
21190 W Obsidian Dr #203	0.41mi	1/1.0	644 (+2%)	5mo	$247,000	$384	73
30870 S Vagabond Trl	0.25mi	1/1.0	658 (+4%)	12mo	$199,000	$302	71
30515 S Quarry Ln	0.38mi	1/1.0	634 (+1%)	14mo	$172,000	$271	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $11,707
• Equity at exit: $73,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $51,672
• Equity at exit: $118,007

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85332

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$185 /mo · $2,220/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $120,012

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,000 Active 445 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,000 Active 444 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 443 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,000 Active 442 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,000 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,000 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Active 435 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,000 Active 434 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $148,000 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $148,000 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,000 Active 429 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,000 Active 428 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,000 Active 427 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    status Active
15. 2026-05-05
    historical
16. 2026-05-03
    status Active
17. 2026-05-01
    historical
18. 2026-04-13
    price $148,000
19. 2026-02-13
    price $154,000
20. 2026-01-08
    price $164,000
21. 2025-03-27
    listed $168,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$2,220
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$4,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Congress Elementary District (4479)
• NCES district ID: 0402220
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,613
• Composite: 49.83/100
• National rank: #4193
• State rank: #91 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Congress

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #11962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Congress, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,777

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 513.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $148,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $154,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $164,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $168,000 ARMLS