4840 Colonial Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1941 9,147 sqft lot Est $222k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the established Lakeshore area of Jacksonville's Westside, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a strong opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add value and make it their own. Set on a spacious, tree-lined lot, the property provides a peaceful setting with room to enhance both indoor and outdoor living. The home features a functional layout with a large living area with fireplace, original hardwood flooring, and a generously sized kitchen complete with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. A rear deck adds additional potential for outdoor enjoyment and entertaining. While updates are needed, the property offers solid fundamenta

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Large living area
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TREE LINED LOT
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Additional parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1; North-facing
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Tile flooring; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayview Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 330 students, 74% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,567 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,725
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4615 Sunderland Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,222 (-0%)	1mo	$219,000	$179	84
2211 Bayview Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	1mo	$125,000	$99	78
4756 Shirley Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	2mo	$229,900	$187	78
5321 Fremont St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,166 (-5%)	1mo	$231,000	$198	69
5044 Colonial Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+12%)	2mo	$250,000	$183	68
4819 Irvington Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-7%)	1mo	$197,500	$173	65
4567 Palmer Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,114 (-9%)	1mo	$159,000	$143	64
4609 Cambridge Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,270 (+4%)	1mo	$130,000	$102	64
4649 Cambridge Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,118 (-9%)	0mo	$235,000	$210	62
4417 San Juan Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+5%)	3mo	$320,000	$248	56
5103 Camille Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-11%)	2mo	$114,000	$104	55
2811 Lake Shore Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+11%)	4mo	$247,000	$181	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,376
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $15,432
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4614 Birkenhead Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	14d	1	0.35mi
5215 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	7d	1	0.38mi
5140 Janice Cir S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,335	$1.10	21d	1	0.48mi
3434 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	3d	2	0.48mi
3434 Blanding Blvd #201 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,800	$1.44	17d	1	0.49mi
4776 Cardinal Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	959	$1,550	$1.62	24d	1	0.53mi
5139 Camille Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,625	$1.48	2d	1	0.57mi
1626 Stimson St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,641	$1.20	21d	1	0.74mi
4844 Merrimac Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	24d	1	0.76mi
4610 Cedarwood Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1381	$1,950	$1.41	17d	1	0.77mi
5615 San Juan Ave #208 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	24d	1	0.77mi
2039 Niblick Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,275	$1.51	3d	10	0.79mi
6026 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	1380	$700	$0.51	24d	1	0.84mi
4608 Wheeler Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	24d	1	0.88mi
5821 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,330	$1.26	3d	7	0.88mi
6066 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1097	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	0.90mi
6119 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1302	$1,395	$1.07	24d	1	0.90mi
4523 Merrimac Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,544	$1.08	3d	1	0.93mi
1480 Stimson St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,445	$1.15	14d	1	0.99mi
4301 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,606	$1.54	3d	39	0.99mi
1540 Lake Shore Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,495	$1.27	7d	1	1.06mi
4375 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1125	$1,536	$1.37	3d	22	1.08mi
3607 Colebrooke Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,590	$1.17	3d	1	1.11mi
5256 Clarendon Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,100	$1.64	24d	1	1.16mi
1554 Geraldine Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,850	$2.09	7d	1	1.16mi
4020 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,845	$1.46	17d	1	1.17mi
5120 Quan Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,250	$0.86	2d	1	1.18mi
4102 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,650	$1.12	4d	1	1.19mi
4455 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1045	$1,599	$1.53	2d	19	1.20mi
1650 Parrish Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1387	$2,100	$1.51	24d	1	1.21mi
4343 Ortega Farms Cir Unit A Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,950	$2.44	24d	1	1.22mi
1374 Murray Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,950	$1.46	12d	1	1.27mi
6511 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	740	$1,200	$1.62	4d	1	1.27mi
3668 Jammes Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,540	$1.26	4d	1	1.28mi
5351 Royce Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	24d	1	1.33mi
1374 Lake Shore Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,150	$1.48	7d	2	1.34mi
5377 Royce Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	17d	1	1.35mi
6236 Autlan Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,555	$1.20	4d	1	1.38mi
6595 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	846	$1,250	$1.48	19d	4	1.38mi
3946 Saint Johns Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,486	$2.76	2d	18	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    status Active
14. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-04-13
    status Active
16. 2026-04-13
    price $165,000
17. 2026-04-09
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-03-23
    listed $169,000 Active
19. 2006-05-05
    soldstatus $141,500
20. 1997-11-06
    soldstatus $63,000
21. 1997-09-22
    soldstatus $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$33/mo · 41.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$341
• After-tax cash flow: $3,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+335.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $165,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $169,000 realMLS
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $141,500 Public Records
• 1997-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · +23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.