Pedernales Plan · Needville, TX 77461

$282,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 319 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Two bathroom
• Granite countertops
• Four bedroom

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM
• TWO BATHROOM
• SECLUDED WORK FROM HOME SPACE
• SIZABLE WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $282,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $315,587.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,500 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,587
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: -10.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14235 Hay Meadow Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,027 (+13%)	3mo	$317,999	$157	66
14210 Cally Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-5%)	4mo	$335,000	$196	63
9525 Gene St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (+3%)	4mo	$297,500	$161	58
14311 Cally Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,011 (+12%)	10mo	$370,000	$184	51
13203 Cary Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,036 (+13%)	10mo	$384,900	$189	48
9517 Gene St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (+4%)	14mo	$259,900	$139	47
13222 Muzny St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-11%)	15mo	$321,000	$199	46
14211 Cally Cir	0.43mi	4/3.0	1,928 (+7%)	21mo	$335,000	$174	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-74,536
• Equity at exit: $47,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-94,936
• Equity at exit: $27,286

Cash invested: $88,364 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,734/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,761

Max offer price $262,351

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-259	+0% $-368	+5% $-477	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-459	+0% $-368	+5% $-277	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-288	base $-368	+0.5pp $-450	+1.0pp $-533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,897
• Closing costs: $9,468
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9723 Highland Pointe Dr Needville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	7d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $282,990 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,990 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,990 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,990 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,990 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,990 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,990 Active 310 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,990 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,990 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,990 Active 298 DOM
16. 2025-08-07
    listed $282,990 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,678
• − Property taxes: −$4,734
• − Insurance: −$1,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$9,181
• Taxable loss: −$10,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,409
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-07 Listed $282,990 Zillow