1500 E Held Dr #55 · Modesto, CA 95355

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $108k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning Senior 55+ Community, Great home location facing a carefree view across from a small peach park orchard, close to pool and club house or just relaxing on your front porch Ready for you to make this your home and ready to move in. Close to Shopping, Hospital and AMTRAK

Key facts

• Close to club house
• Close to pool
• Carefree view

Tags

• CAREFREE VIEW
• PEACH PARK ORCHARD
• CLOSE TO POOL
• CLOSE TO CLUB HOUSE
• FRONT PORCH
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; No garage (carport present)
• Utilities: Individual gas meter; Internet available; 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 1990; Regular-shaped lot
• Construction: Shingle roof; Vinyl skirting; Roberts Stonewood manufacturer
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cooktop; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Laminate counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Sunken tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Great room living area; Porch; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.54%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 Held #99	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$107,000	$80	91
1500 Held Dr #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$80,000	$60	86
1500 Held Dr #81	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (-2%)	8mo	$50,000	$38	86
1428 Playground Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	85
1544 Playground Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$140,000	$104	83
1500 Held Dr #119	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$87,000	$60	82
1500 Held Dr #135	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	78
1500 Held	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+14%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	74
1500 Held Dr #84	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+14%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	70
1517 Panthers Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	11mo	$111,000	$89	66
1500 Held Dr #124	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$84,900	$74	62
4400 Spartans Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$111,800	$97	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $38,373
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $96,835
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $993	+0% $954	+5% $914	+10% $874
Rent	-10% $779	-5% $866	+0% $954	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,129
Rate	-1.0pp $1,012	-0.5pp $983	base $954	+0.5pp $924	+1.0pp $894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Cedar Creek Dr #1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,999	$1.88	15d	1	0.91mi
757 Waddell Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,700	$1.54	15d	1	1.31mi
1217 Kara Ln Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,395	$1.54	24d	1	1.35mi
1500 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,900	$2.32	15d	7	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $10,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $8,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B