🏷️ Likely Rental
1901 N Church St · Decatur, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.4/10.0
$55,800
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Income producing Duplex close to public transportation, shopping, dining, and medical facilities. Tenants pay their own electric service. Owner pays water and trash. Tenant rights.
Key facts
- Shopping
- Dining
- Medical facilities
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Security: Smoke detectors
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Duplex residential income property; One story
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
- Exterior features: Asphalt/Shingle/other roof; Shed on property; City street frontage; Dirt and gravel road surface; Publicly maintained road; Zoned other
Interior
- Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
- Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
- Interior features: Electric water heater; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Crawl space basement
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a ?-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $56k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
- Recommended offer: $54k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Parsons Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 462 students, 0% FRL); Stephen Decatur Middle School (math 0% / reading 5%, grade F, #658 of 665 statewide, top 99%, 459 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur High School (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #580 of 693 statewide, top 84%, 1,105 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.80% ✓
- Cap rate
- 15.06%
- Cash-on-cash
- 31.30%
- DSCR
- 2.39
- GRM
- 4.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $109,610
- List price
- $55,800
- Delta
- -49.09%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 27.7%
- Equity multiple
- 2.20×
- Total profit
- $18,781
- Equity at exit
- $10,294
- IRR
- 34.2%
- Equity multiple
- 4.29×
- Total profit
- $51,470
- Equity at exit
- $8,284
Cash invested: $15,624 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 62526
- Home prices YoY
- -1.2%
- Active inventory
- 135
- Price-to-rent
- 4.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,004 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$293
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$70 /mo · $837/yr
- Insurance
- −$23
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$211
- Net cashflow
- $407
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $446 | -5% $427 | +0% $407 | +5% $388 | +10% $369 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $328 | -5% $368 | +0% $407 | +5% $447 | +10% $487 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $436 | -0.5pp $422 | base $407 | +0.5pp $393 | +1.0pp $378 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,950
- Closing costs
- $1,674
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 10 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1908 N Union St Decatur, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 704 | $899 | $1.28 | 44d | 1 | 0.06mi |
| 2148 N Graceland Ave Decatur, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,195 | $1.38 | 44d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 1245 N Union St Decatur, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1111 | $995 | $0.90 | 44d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 510 E Pierson Ave Decatur, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 895 | $1,200 | $1.34 | 44d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 1045 N Monroe St Decatur, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1094 | $1,000 | $0.91 | 44d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 927 E Harrison Ave Decatur, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 720 | $675 | $0.94 | 22d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 1311 N Walnut Grove Ave Decatur, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 781 | $1,100 | $1.41 | 44d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 853 N College St Decatur, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 936 | $925 | $0.99 | 44d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 1345 N Fairview Ave Decatur, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 785 | $985 | $1.25 | 44d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 1729 N Woodford St Decatur, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 728 | $825 | $1.13 | 44d | 1 | 1.14mi |
Listing history 17 events
-
2026-06-19days on market $55,800 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $55,800 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $55,800 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $55,800 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $55,800 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $55,800 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $55,800 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $55,800 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $55,800 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $55,800 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $55,800 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $55,800 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $55,800 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $55,800 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $55,800 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $55,800 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-05-04$55,800 Active 180-char remark
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $12,047
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,126
- − Property taxes
- −$837
- − Insurance
- −$279
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$964
- − Management
- −$964
- − Depreciation
- −$1,623
- Taxable income
- $4,255
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,021
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,869/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Decatur SD 61
- NCES district ID
- 1711850
- Math proficiency
- 3% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 6% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,864
- Composite
- 3.99/100
- National rank
- #10059
- State rank
- #605 of 620 in IL
Livability — Decatur
- Score
- 59/100
- State rank
- #1076
- US rank
- #20533
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Decatur, IL
- County
- Macon County · 78,333 people
- City population
- 78,333
- Metro
- Decatur, IL
- Population (ZIP)
- 30,483
- Household income
- $49,062
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1041.0
Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 99,568 people
- By 2030
- 94,973 · -4.6%
- By 2040
- 85,250 · -14.4%
- By 2050
- 75,920 · -23.8%
- By 2075
- 55,962 · -43.8%
- By 2100
- 36,468 · -63.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (68%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Macon
- 2024 margin
- R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -2.21%
- Current HPI
- 182.871
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Decatur, IL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
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| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-05-04 Listed $55,800 CIBR
Property tax history
+3.6%/yrLatest (2024): $43 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…