16954 Mitchell Rd · French Settlement, LA 70733

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 2016 0.43 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom manufactured home offering comfort and potential in a peaceful setting. The inviting front porch provides the perfect place to relax and enjoy your morning coffee or unwind at the end of the day. A convenient carport offers covered parking and added functionality. Inside, the spacious layout presents a wonderful opportunity to personalize the home to fit your style and needs. With its welcoming atmosphere and appealing features, this property is ready for its next owner to make it their own and create lasting memories.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Carport
• Spacious layout

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Raised foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built with a raised foundation
• Exterior features: Covered wood porch/patio; Outside city limits; Oversized lot (approximately 0.426 acres, 117 x 157)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Average condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($921/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in French Settlement — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#293 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A-, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,433 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $39,768
• Equity at exit: $81,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $114,571
• Equity at exit: $143,934

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70733

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $295/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $116	+0% $77	+5% $37	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $32	+0% $77	+5% $121	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $112	base $77	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 577-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $295 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 158.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 35% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$295
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$357
• After-tax cash flow: $1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — French Settlement

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #20743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Settlement, LA
• Population (ZIP): 1,497

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 23% Scotch-Irish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Current HPI: 143.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $139,000 GSREIN
• 2026-06-06 Listed $139,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-12 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2023-08-26 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-08-18 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-08-15 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-07-11 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $155,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $155,000 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $295 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.