1600 Stony Ridge, #10 Dr · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$1,025

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · Condo · 335 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN SPECIAL * * * * * 1st Month Free with 1 Year Lease * * * * Spacious two bedroom, one and one-half bath apartment within walking distance to Office Depot and Home Depot. 950 square feet. Refrigerator, stove and dishwasher provided. Updated flooring, paint and more. This is an upstairs unit. Available for quick move in. Joan Blankenship, LREB, is a partner in TJM Properties, LP, owner of this property.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 335 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $1k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1k).
• Recommended offer: $902 (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1441.5% vs local median 2.7% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $31 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $287 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($902) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $902 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 152.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 1441.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 5125.82%
• DSCR: 229.07
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 256.62×
• Total profit: $73,363
• Equity at exit: $153

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 512.65×
• Total profit: $146,843
• Equity at exit: $89

Cash invested: $287 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 752
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1 /mo · $15/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $1,226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9

Max offer price $1,025

Occupancy floor 16%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,227	-5% $1,226	+0% $1,226	+5% $1,226	+10% $1,225
Rent	-10% $1,103	-5% $1,164	+0% $1,226	+5% $1,288	+10% $1,349
Rate	-1.0pp $1,226	-0.5pp $1,226	base $1,226	+0.5pp $1,226	+1.0pp $1,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $256
• Closing costs: $31
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1391 Max Copeland Dr Marble Falls, TX	1.0	1.0	886	$1,680	$1.90	44d	1	0.29mi
1112 Northwood Dr Marble Falls, TX	2.0	1.0	923	$1,350	$1.46	24d	1	0.66mi
1601 Mustang Dr Marble Falls, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1049	$1,884	$1.80	2d	77	0.88mi
708 Avenue S Marble Falls, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	44d	1	0.97mi
1611 2nd St Marble Falls, TX	3.0	1.0	975	$1,395	$1.43	24d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $1,025 Pending 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,025 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,025 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,025 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,025 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,025 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,025 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,025 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,025 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,025 Active 322 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,025 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,025 Active 319 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,025 Active 318 DOM
14. 2025-07-17
    listed $1,025 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    MOVE IN SPECIAL * * * * * 1st Month Free with 1 Year Lease * * * * Spacious two bedroom, one and one-half bath apartment within walking distance to Office Depot and Home Depot. 950 square feet. Refrigerator, stove and dishwasher provided. Updated flooring, paint and more. This is an upstairs unit. Available for quick move in. Joan Blankenship, LREB, is a partner in TJM Properties, LP, owner of this property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$57
• − Property taxes: −$15
• − Insurance: −$5
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$30
• Taxable income: $15,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,750
• After-tax cash flow: $10,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-17 Listed $1,025 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID