19 Lacrosse Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$399,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1939 6,098 sqft lot Est $349k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage, 2br, 1bath, needs renovation.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Full attic
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Deck; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Basement (partial)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,000 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,280
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Lacrosse Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	740 (0%)	3mo	$275,000	$372	97
129 Locust Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	800 (+8%)	8mo	$371,000	$464	77
154 Jefferson Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	836 (+13%)	4mo	$380,000	$455	71
15 Juniper Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0	714 (-4%)	7mo	$337,000	$472	58
119 Hemlock Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	824 (+11%)	13mo	$458,000	$556	55
186 Orchid Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	761 (+3%)	9mo	$411,850	$541	54
129 Woodland Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	733 (-1%)	22mo	$350,000	$477	52
15 Robinwood Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	700 (-5%)	10mo	$461,000	$659	50
255 Mckinley Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	798 (+8%)	11mo	$387,500	$486	49
116 Elder Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	682 (-8%)	15mo	$215,000	$315	45
80 Diana Dr	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	835 (+13%)	11mo	$375,000	$449	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $195,355
• Equity at exit: $360,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $592,891
• Equity at exit: $777,093

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,553/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,346

Max offer price $337,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-126	-5% $-239	+0% $-353	+5% $-466	+10% $-579
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-467	+0% $-353	+5% $-238	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-251	base $-353	+0.5pp $-456	+1.0pp $-562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	0d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 659-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,553 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,656 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,553
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$11,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+647.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Sold (MLS) $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Listed $289,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,553 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.