124 Hillcrest Rd · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1957 4,356 sqft lot $149/sqft · 18% below area Est $274k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Slider to deck
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SLIDER TO DECK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Resale property
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (both on first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Sliding glass doors; Sliding doors; Bedroom on main level; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mullen Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 303 students, 54% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $225k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $163,500 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,204
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -17.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Bannard Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+6%)	18mo	$222,500	$138	45
23 Nicholas Ct	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,458 (-4%)	24mo	$282,000	$193	44
205 Joseph Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,700 (+12%)	15mo	$279,000	$164	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-43,922
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-27,729
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,827/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,910

Max offer price $186,557

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-154	+0% $-218	+5% $-281	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-282	+0% $-218	+5% $-153	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-160	base $-218	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	14d	1	0.34mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	5d	1	0.64mi
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	3d	1	0.72mi
149 Adam St Tonawanda, NY	1.0	2.5	1772	$1,500	$0.85	46d	1	0.98mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	0d	1	1.26mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	1.28mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,775	$1.65	0d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $225,000 Active 915-char remark
2. 2020-04-09
   soldstatus $140,000 Closed Sale or Rented 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

3. 2020-04-02
   soldstatus $140,000
4. 2020-02-25
   status Pending Sale 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

5. 2020-02-19
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

6. 2020-02-18
   status Active 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

7. 2020-02-11
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

8. 2020-02-03
   listed $134,900 Active 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Welcome to 124 Hillcrest Road. This beautifully updated cape features a large living room and very large eat-in kitchen with all appliances. Slider opens to fully fenced yard. Mostly finished second floor waiting for your finishing touches. Basement has loads of storage plus bonus room. Detached garage and concrete driveway. Updates include: furnace, electric, sump pump.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,827 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,315 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,827
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+66.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $225,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-04-09 Sold (MLS) $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-02-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-02-18 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2020-02-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-02-03 Listed $134,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,827 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.