1142 Oakley Dr · Forestdale, AL 35214

$185,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,570 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1959 0.48 ac lot Est $213k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For comp. 's only!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Brick one level home
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• BRICK ONE LEVEL HOME
• REMODELED WITH NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#367 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Minor Community School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 409 students, 84% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,816 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,310
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 Blanton Ln	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,726 (+6%)	22mo	$245,000	$90	45
637 Blanton Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,229 (-13%)	8mo	$95,000	$43	40
1040 Avocado Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,758 (+7%)	23mo	$190,000	$69	39
249 Lapala Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,287 (-11%)	4mo	$189,000	$83	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-20,649
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,863
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35214

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
637 Blanton Ln Birmingham, AL	5.0	3.0	2229	$1,550	$0.70	1d	1	0.48mi
828 Clover Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	2028	$1,500	$0.74	1d	1	0.54mi
634 Broken Bow Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,625	$0.86	19d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-10-31
   soldstatus $193,000
2. 2025-10-31
   soldstatus $193,000
3. 2025-10-17
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-12
   historical
5. 2025-09-03
   price $185,000
6. 2025-08-21
   price $189,900
7. 2025-07-23
   price $199,000
8. 2025-07-07
   listed $209,900 Active
9. 2025-03-21
   soldstatus $100,000 Sold 18-char remark

   Show marketing remark (18 chars)

   For comp. 's only!

10. 2025-03-10
    listed Contingent 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    For comp. 's only!

11. 2025-02-03
    listed $100,000 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    For comp. 's only!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$166/yr (+$14/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$156
• After-tax cash flow: $2,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Forestdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #21236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestdale, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 17,027
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,027
• Household income: $56,383
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 578.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% White 18% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.48%
• Current HPI: 218.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+93.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $193,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $193,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-12 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $185,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $189,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $199,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $209,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-21 Sold (MLS) $100,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $100,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.