Is 214 Deer Run in Lufkin, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 6.3% cap rate and $-2/mo modeled cash flow at a $169,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 214 Deer Run?

The modeled cap rate is 6.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,484/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 50.75

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +13.2/30.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
DSCR +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$169,900

214 Deer Run · Lufkin, TX 75901

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition 1.30 ac lot $111/sqft · 30% below area Est $242k · 30% under ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful country living on 1.3 acres—just minutes from everything Lufkin has to offer! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,536 square feet of comfortable living space with a desirable split floor plan, providing added privacy between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms. Inside, you'll find brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh paint, and updated lighting and ceiling fans that give the home a clean, modern feel. The open layout flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which features an island and opens directly onto the covered back deck. Step outside to relax or entertain on the covered deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening unwinding.

Key facts

Split floor plan
Covered back deck
Updated flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-23/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $148k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Brandon El (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 394 students, 71% FRL); Lufkin Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,487 students, 89% FRL); Lufkin H S (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,135 students, 85% FRL).
Market conditions: 343 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,383 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.87% ✗
Cap rate: 6.28%
Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
DSCR: 1.00
GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $242,293
List price: $169,900
Delta: -29.88%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5633 Fm-842	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	11mo	$265,000	$182	57
280 Scotty Beard Rd	1.88mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-0%)	16mo	$174,900	$114	52
4322 Fm 842	1.81mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+5%)	12mo	$285,000	$177	46
956 Lightfoot Rd	2.12mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-24%)	4mo	$299,000	$256	36
3181 John Kolb Rd	1.84mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	33mo	$179,990	$115	32
874 Spivey Rd	2.04mi	3/2.0	1,990 (+30%)	13mo	$279,000	$140	29
204 Mimosa Ln	2.10mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-12%)	26mo	$119,000	$88	25
929 Water Well Rd	1.15mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+17%)	19mo	$314,900	$176	24
1815 Troy Johnson Rd	1.49mi	1/1.0 (-2)	1,200 (-22%)	3mo	$138,027	$115	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -16.4%
Equity multiple: 0.42×
Total profit: $-27,631
Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

IRR: -8.1%
Equity multiple: 0.49×
Total profit: $-24,126
Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75901

Home prices YoY: -16.9%
Active inventory: 343
Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,484 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$891
Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
Insurance: −$71
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $169,623

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $57	+0% $-2	+5% $-61	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-61	+0% $-2	+5% $57	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $41	base $-2	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $42,475
Closing costs: $5,097
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Exterior

Security: Smoke detector(s)
Home design: Single family residenceResidential property
Construction: Vinyl sidingMetal roof

Interior

Flooring: Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $169,900 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $169,900 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $169,900 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $169,900 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $169,900 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $169,900 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $169,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $169,900 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $169,900 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $169,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $169,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $169,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $169,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $169,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $169,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $169,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $169,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $169,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $169,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $169,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $169,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $169,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $169,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $169,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $169,900 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $169,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-13

pricedays on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $17,806
− Mortgage interest: −$9,517
− Property taxes: −$2,548
− Insurance: −$850
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
− Management: −$1,424
− Depreciation: −$4,943
Taxable loss: −$2,901

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$696
After-tax cash flow: $673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,680–$23,040 screening

This well-maintained, updated home offers a good condition with fresh paint, new flooring, and a desirable split floor plan. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Garrett Pri High Lufkin H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lufkin ISD
NCES district ID: 4828550
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $41,009
Composite: 32.81/100
National rank: #5625
State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lufkin

Score: 72/100
State rank: #240
US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Angelina County · 90,174 people
City population: 62,696
Metro: Lufkin, TX
Population (ZIP): 28,234
Household income: $62,966
Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 90,174 people
By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -47.13%
Current HPI: 232.6282
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Lufkin, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-12 Price Changed $169,900 Deep East Texas MLS
2026-04-24 Listed $175,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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