12614 Chiswick Rd · Houston, TX 77047

$177,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1966 5,776 sqft lot Est $215k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous remodeled 3 bed, 2 bath home! Great investment opportunity. This home is tenant occupied with a monthly rent of $1285. This home can be purchased individually or as a package of 9 homes. This home has many upgrades including granite counters throughout, new laminate flooring, new carpet in bedrooms, fresh paint, new fans & lights.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Private bath
• Backyard

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH
• BACKYARD
• EASY COMMUTE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 1,197
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Water, sewer, and power information not specified
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1966; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approx. 5,775 sq ft; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen (approx. 16 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 8); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 8 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($39/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,016 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,460
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 Brenford Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,208 (+1%)	9mo	$189,000	$156	77
12610 Chiswick Rd	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,042 (-13%)	6mo	$155,000	$149	71
12914 Belmont Legend Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,229 (+3%)	10mo	$230,000	$187	70
939 Blanchard Hl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+2%)	6mo	$219,990	$181	70
13119 Ridgewood Knoll Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+1%)	2mo	$238,900	$198	69
12903 Belmont Legend Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	11mo	$225,000	$180	68
1135 Canterdale St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-13%)	4mo	$180,000	$173	67
13003 Bell Manor Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	5mo	$224,500	$170	63
1639 Nichole Woods Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	3mo	$210,450	$183	59
1663 Nichole Woods Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	7mo	$225,000	$195	57
947 Staffordale Manor Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+15%)	11mo	$215,000	$156	54
1206 Canterview Dr	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,240 (+4%)	6mo	$139,900	$113	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-33,538
• Equity at exit: $26,466

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-48,175
• Equity at exit: $15,347

Cash invested: $49,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,400/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,736

Max offer price $177,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $54	+0% $3	+5% $-47	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-65	+0% $3	+5% $72	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $48	base $3	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,375
• Closing costs: $5,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 W Orem Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,380	$1.21	44d	1	0.27mi
2201 W Orem Dr Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,554	$1.37	8d	1	0.30mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,578	$1.39	12d	1	0.30mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,538	$1.35	0d	1	0.30mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,579	$1.39	44d	1	0.30mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,579	$1.39	0d	1	0.30mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,589	$1.40	12d	1	0.34mi
1661 Nichole Woods Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,746	$1.52	6d	1	0.64mi
11915 Sanspereil Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,695	$1.30	4d	1	0.77mi
11900 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,645	$1.88	0d	25	0.85mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,274	$1.44	0d	1	0.92mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	8d	1	0.92mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	6d	1	0.92mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,314	$1.48	12d	1	0.92mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 11857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,362	$1.54	44d	1	0.92mi
11906 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	44d	1	0.93mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	17d	1	0.95mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	44d	1	0.95mi
3103 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	8d	1	1.07mi
14435 Acuna Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,805	$1.21	44d	1	1.07mi
3119 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	44d	1	1.09mi
3135 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	23d	1	1.12mi
3150 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	8d	1	1.16mi
3215 Boynton Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	25d	1	1.17mi
3239 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,589	$1.21	17d	1	1.23mi
3234 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	25d	1	1.23mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	4d	12	1.25mi
13351 Cityscape Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,820	$1.87	0d	25	1.41mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $177,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $177,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,800 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,800 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,800 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,800 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,800 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,800 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $186,800 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,400 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,400 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,943
• − Property taxes: −$4,400
• − Insurance: −$888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$5,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$685
• After-tax cash flow: $724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $186,800 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $199,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-09 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-01-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-27 Listed $109,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,400 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.