2621 Old Marlin · Waco, TX 76705

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1950 0.39 ac lot $91/sqft · 33% below area Est $233k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom, 3-bath home available for sale. This attractive property offers plenty of potential and just needs a little TLC. Features include tile and vinyl plank flooring accented by granite countertops. The spacious, open kitchen is equipped with a freestanding range and refrigerator. The master suite is secluded with a large bathroom, while three additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the house. An extra bathroom in the hallway near the living room provides added convenience for guests. The large backyard includes an older metal storage shed and a deck perfect for stargazing. Mature trees enhance the front yard. Recent upgrades include a new septic tank in the backyard (August 2024), some plumbing replacements underneath the home, and a new electric water heater in 2025.. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify square ft.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Large bathroom
• Refrigerator

Tags

• TILE AND VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FREESTANDING RANGE
• REFRIGERATOR
• MASTER SUITE
• LARGE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,861
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -33.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 Old Marlin Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-5%)	15mo	$235,000	$146	77
2816 Old Marlin Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (-9%)	1mo	$235,000	$152	70
2915 Old Marlin Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-5%)	23mo	$289,900	$180	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,480
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,043
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,970/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2415 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1095	$2,120	$1.94	13d	27	1.39mi
1324 Cherry St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	13d	1	1.41mi
2825 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1121	$1,228	$1.10	13d	8	1.41mi
66 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,715	$2.08	13d	1	1.46mi
2430 S 2nd St Waco, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.5	1400	$1,625	$1.16	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 3-bath home available for sale. This attractive property offers plenty of potential and just needs a little TLC. Features include tile and vinyl plank flooring accented by granite countertops. The spacious, open kitchen is equipped with a freestanding range and refrigerator. The master suite is secluded with a large bathroom, while three additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the house. An extra bathroom in the hallway near the living room provides added convenience for guests. The large backyard includes an older metal storage shed and a deck perfect for stargazing. Mature trees enhance the front yard. Recent upgrades include a new septic tank in the backyard (August 2024), some plumbing replacements underneath the home, and a new electric water heater in 2025.. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify square ft.

16. 2026-05-02
    historical Active Option Contract 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 3-bath home available for sale. This attractive property offers plenty of potential and just needs a little TLC. Features include tile and vinyl plank flooring accented by granite countertops. The spacious, open kitchen is equipped with a freestanding range and refrigerator. The master suite is secluded with a large bathroom, while three additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the house. An extra bathroom in the hallway near the living room provides added convenience for guests. The large backyard includes an older metal storage shed and a deck perfect for stargazing. Mature trees enhance the front yard. Recent upgrades include a new septic tank in the backyard (August 2024), some plumbing replacements underneath the home, and a new electric water heater in 2025.. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify square ft.

17. 2026-04-19
    status Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 3-bath home available for sale. This attractive property offers plenty of potential and just needs a little TLC. Features include tile and vinyl plank flooring accented by granite countertops. The spacious, open kitchen is equipped with a freestanding range and refrigerator. The master suite is secluded with a large bathroom, while three additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the house. An extra bathroom in the hallway near the living room provides added convenience for guests. The large backyard includes an older metal storage shed and a deck perfect for stargazing. Mature trees enhance the front yard. Recent upgrades include a new septic tank in the backyard (August 2024), some plumbing replacements underneath the home, and a new electric water heater in 2025.. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify square ft.

18. 2026-04-10
    status Pending 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 3-bath home available for sale. This attractive property offers plenty of potential and just needs a little TLC. Features include tile and vinyl plank flooring accented by granite countertops. The spacious, open kitchen is equipped with a freestanding range and refrigerator. The master suite is secluded with a large bathroom, while three additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the house. An extra bathroom in the hallway near the living room provides added convenience for guests. The large backyard includes an older metal storage shed and a deck perfect for stargazing. Mature trees enhance the front yard. Recent upgrades include a new septic tank in the backyard (August 2024), some plumbing replacements underneath the home, and a new electric water heater in 2025.. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify square ft.

19. 2026-04-01
    listed $170,000 Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 3-bath home available for sale. This attractive property offers plenty of potential and just needs a little TLC. Features include tile and vinyl plank flooring accented by granite countertops. The spacious, open kitchen is equipped with a freestanding range and refrigerator. The master suite is secluded with a large bathroom, while three additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the house. An extra bathroom in the hallway near the living room provides added convenience for guests. The large backyard includes an older metal storage shed and a deck perfect for stargazing. Mature trees enhance the front yard. Recent upgrades include a new septic tank in the backyard (August 2024), some plumbing replacements underneath the home, and a new electric water heater in 2025.. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify square ft.

20. 2025-01-16
    historical
21. 2024-10-23
    listed $170,000
22. 2024-10-18
    historical
23. 2024-08-29
    listed $185,000
24. 2021-11-12
    soldstatus
25. 2021-11-05
    soldstatus
26. 2021-08-13
    listed $85,000
27. 2012-08-24
    soldstatus
28. 2012-08-24
    soldstatus
29. 2011-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,970
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $1,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-08-13 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2012-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,970 · +34.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.