22838 Bear Valley Rd #73 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1971 $60/sqft · 26% below area Est $121k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FAMILY PARK!!!!!! MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! MAKE AN OFFER!!!!Take a look at this 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, a good size kitchen, inside laundry room. This mobile home has laminated style floors combined with tile floor in the kitchen. A covered carport for 2 parking spaces. Also on the other side there is an iron gate with a long concrete patio that is as long as the mobile home for extra parking or to have a nice BBQ gathering. According to seller the roof is a year old. Come and take a look at this mobile home and make it your new home for your family. Seller is selling as is. Lenders financing available.

Key facts

• Long concrete patio
• Covered carport
• Iron gate

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• IRON GATE
• LONG CONCRETE PATIO
• LAMINATED STYLE FLOORS
• TILE FLOOR IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.65%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,094
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -25.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22838 Bear Valley Rd #30	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	9mo	$111,000	$77	85
22838 Bear Valley Rd #1	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-3%)	13mo	$105,000	$73	79
22838 Bear Valley Rd #99	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	22mo	$108,000	$80	66
22838 Bear Valley Rd #47	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-5%)	20mo	$70,000	$50	64
22838 Bear Valley Rd #117	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	21mo	$99,900	$74	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $55,804
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $146,951
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $198/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,064

Break-even live

Break-even rent $666

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	20d	1	0.37mi
22526 Sioux Rd Unit 12 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	2d	1	0.41mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	17d	1	1.23mi
13207 Franceska Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	2d	1	1.26mi
22873 Ottawa Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $90,000 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    FAMILY PARK!!!!!! MOTIVATED SELLER!!!! MAKE AN OFFER!!!!Take a look at this 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, a good size kitchen, inside laundry room. This mobile home has laminated style floors combined with tile floor in the kitchen. A covered carport for 2 parking spaces. Also on the other side there is an iron gate with a long concrete patio that is as long as the mobile home for extra parking or to have a nice BBQ gathering. According to seller the roof is a year old. Come and take a look at this mobile home and make it your new home for your family. Seller is selling as is. Lenders financing available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $198 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$41/mo · 245.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$198
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $11,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,874
• After-tax cash flow: $9,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $90,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $198 · -67.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.